January’s expected year-on-year growth rate in Macau’s monthly casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) could be the highest since July 2017. That is the suggestion in a note issued on Monday by brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.
“Our channel checks indicate that Macau’s GGR month-to-date (January 1 to 14) was approximately MOP11 billion [US$1.37 billion], an average daily rate of approximately MOP786 million,” stated analysts Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Cathy Huang.
They added: “Assuming a GGR average daily rate of MOP740 million to MOP760 million for the remaining days of the month, we estimate January GGR to a range of MOP23.6 billion and MOP23.9 billion, an estimated year-on-year increase in January of +22 percent to +24 percent, which is higher than our previous estimates.”
GGR for July 2017 was up 29.2 percent in year-on-year terms. Monthly gaming revenue growth has since fluctuated between 14.6 percent in December and 22.6 percent in November.
The Sanford Bernstein team said that during the first 14 days of January, VIP volume in Macau “was likely up by high single-digit percentage rate month-on-month… and back to November level, and mass was likely flat month-on-month.”
Macau’s accumulated GGR for full-year 2017 grew by 19.1 percent compared to the tally for 2016, according to data released earlier this month by the city’s regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
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”A challenge to Macau's economic model could potentially emerge over the longer term should China revise existing criminal laws that prohibit most forms of gambling in the mainland... Even in such a scenario, Fitch would expect this to occur gradually”
Fitch Ratings Inc