Market-wide casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau is likely to go up at least 19.3 percent in full year 2017 compared to 2016, according to estimates by two brokerages. That would mean GGR of at least MOP266.24 billion (US$33.06 billion) for the 12 months ended December 31, 2017, compared to the MOP223.21 billion in the prior-year period.
Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd said in Monday commentary on Macau’s possible December gaming performance, that average daily revenue for the first 17 days of the month was “flat compared with November average daily revenue (MOP768 million) but up 18 percent over similar period last year.” The estimates were based on unofficial industry returns.
Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Cathy Huang added: “Assuming a reduced GGR average daily rate of MOP720 million to MOP750 million for the remaining days of the month, we estimate December GGR to a range of MOP23.2 billion and MOP23.6 billion, an estimated year-on-year increase in December of 17 percent to 19 percent.”
Official data from Macau’s casino regulator shows GGR for the January to November period was MOP243.04 billion, up 19.5 percent in year-on-year terms. Adding Sanford C. Bernstein’s estimates for December would mean GGR of between MOP266.24 billion and MOP266.64 billion for full 2017.
Year-on-year growth in December GGR in the Macau market could be 20 to 25 percent, representing an aggregate for the month of between MOP23.9 billion and MOP24.8 billion, said a Monday note from Japanese brokerage Nomura. That would translate in an even higher GGR tally for full 2017: between MOP266.94 billion and MOP267.84 billion.
Full-year 2017 will be the first time since 2014 that Macau’s casino industry will report full-year GGR year-on-year growth. In 2014, market-wide GGR declined by 2.6 percent, decreasing further by 34.3 percent and 3.3 percent in 2015 and 2016 respectively.
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Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu
Sanford Bernstein analysts