Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) may reach MOP248.6 billion (US$31.1 billion) in full-year 2025, representing a circa 10-percent growth year-on-year, suggested Citigroup in a latest memo. Such growth is expected to be driven by an array of concerts and events hosted by the city’s casino operators, and an “increasing popularity” of baccarat side bets in the Macau market, stated the institution.
“We are raising our 2025 GGR year-on-year growth forecast from plus 7 percent to plus 10 percent,” to MOP248.6 billion, wrote analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau. That would imply “a plus 14-percent year-on-year growth for the rest of the year,” they added.
The Citi team said: “We are also raising our 2026 GGR year-on-year growth forecast from plus 5 percent to plus 7 percent, [to] MOP265.5 billion or US$33.3 billion.”
The banking institution said concerts and events were a “proven model in Macau”, and one of the “key drivers” to fuel GGR growth in the market.
“The latest GGR figures show that the bigger-name performers (e.g., Jacky Cheung, Eason Chan) appealed to bigger players and boosted GGR,” wrote the Citi analysts, referring to the two Hong Kong pop singers.
They added: “Events that we look forward to over the next few weeks include the NBA China Games at the Venetian Arena, and the concerts by [Chinese artist] Lu Han and [Hong Kong singer] Jackson Wang at Galaxy Arena.”
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and Sands China Ltd “have been enjoying the benefits” from operating its own arenas, which “allow them to control their own event calendars”.
“Both operators are gaining market share so far in third-quarter 2025,” suggested the Citi analysts.
Another key driver to GGR growth was how side bets “are enhancing casino hold rates” for the city’s operators, observed the Citi analysts.
“The [city’s] casino operators have been motivating players to wager more on side bets (e.g., progressive jackpot, lucky draw for Rolex Daytona, etc.), and we expect the increasing popularity of side bets to provide an extra boost to GGR,” they stated.
The city’s casino firms have adopted several new baccarat side bets for traditional table play since last year. The ‘Small 6/Big 6’ was introduced in time for the May Golden Week in 2024, and subsequently the ‘Lucky 7’ and ‘Super Lucky 7’ were introduced just before the October Golden Week break last year.
Such side bets continued to be deployed at various properties, and the operators have adjusted their respective side bet options during the summer period, Citi mentioned in its August premium mass survey.
In its latest memo, the analysts noted: “We are seeing signs that these side bets are pushing up casino hold rates, and this makes us more comfortable with our current GGR forecasts.”
The analysts also observed that Macau’s gaming patrons remain “passionate” for casino play, a factor that potentially sustains Macau’s gaming revenue growth momentum.
“Our proprietary [premium mass] table survey has been telling us since April 2025 that gaming demand – especially premium mass – remains robust,” they wrote.
The institution is “conservatively anticipating” Macau’s casino GGR to average circa MOP1.05 billion a day during the upcoming October Golden Week holiday, spanning from October 1 to October 8. The forecast is “largely in-line” with the average daily GGR run-rate of this year’s May Labour Day holiday period.
The term “Golden Week” refers to public holidays on the Chinese mainland – Macau’s main tourism feeder market – that usually coincide with peak business periods for the city’s casinos.
