Average daily casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau for the first 12 days of October stood at MOP804 million (US$100.4 million), according to brokerage Jefferies Hong Kong Ltd, citing industry checks.
That represented a year-on-year decrease of 5 percent, analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei wrote in a Tuesday note.
“This is below market expectations… due to the disruption caused by Typhoon Matmo and lower-than-expected player quality,” they added.
The period included the October Golden Week, a major festive break for mainland Chinese consumers and a peak trading period for Macau’s casinos. Mainland China is the principal feeder market for Macau’s tourism sector.
China’s State Council designated this year’s holiday period on the mainland as running from October 1 to 8 encompassing China’s National Day on October 1 and the lunar calendar-based Mid-Autumn Festival, which this year fell on October 6.
Based on the latest data, Jefferies said it was lowering its fourth-quarter GGR estimate to MOP61.2 billion, representing an increase of 6.6 percent year-on-year. That compared with a prior estimate of 15.3 percent.
“This leads to a 2025 GGR estimate of MOP242.6 billion, up 7.0 percent,” the brokerage said, noting that it was “at the low end of market estimates and above [Macau] government estimates.”
In June, the Macau government reduced its 2025 GGR forecast by around 5 percent, to MOP228 billion, from a previous projection of MOP240 billion.
Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, stated in a Tuesday note that the October Golden Week holiday period “was softer than had been expected; however, the four days following Golden Week appear to have been strong due to a three-day concert by Hong Kong star Jackson Wang at Galaxy Macau and the NBA weekend at The Venetian Macao.”
Mr Umansky added: “With the holiday in the rear-view mirror, the near-term question will be how strong the remainder of the month may be. We believe that high-end premium play may have been softer during Golden Week as some players postponed trips to Macau. This should lead to stronger play over the remaining two and a half weeks.”
Seaport said it was revising its Macau GGR October growth rate to 10 percent year-on-year. “October GGR could come in at MOP22.86 billion – the strongest month of 2025,” it noted.
Discussing third-quarter GGR performance in Macau’s casino sector, Jefferies said it expected Sands China Ltd to have reached a market share of 23.5 percent, up 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, at 20.7 percent, gained 0.3 percentage points, while Wynn Macau Ltd was the biggest share gainer quarter-on-quarter, adding 1.3 percentage points and ending the quarter at 13.3 percent, the brokerage suggested.
MGM China Holdings Ltd recorded a market share of 15.7 percent, a decline of 1.0 percentage point, while SJM Holdings Ltd saw its share contract by 0.4 percentage points to 12 percent.
“We expect Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, as the two large mass players, to have benefited from the strong traffic during the summer holidays, and Wynn Macau Ltd and Sands China to have increased market share by stepping up promotion activities,” Jefferies said.
(Updated at 7.35am, October 15)
