Macau’s first quarter this year saw the highest growth in mass-market gross gaming revenue (GGR) since the third quarter of 2024, says Seaport Research Partners, though the institution adds that “margins remain pressured” within the city’s casino industry.
Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky stated in a Tuesday memo: “We believe cost increases in 2026 will be more muted than experienced in 2025, with operating expenditure growth in the 6 percent to 7 percent range.”
Though he cautioned: “Player reinvestment and agent commissions remain high, and we do not foresee any improvement in the market in the near/medium term, but likely see stabilisation going forward.”
Macau’s first-quarter GGR rose by over 14 percent year-on-year, though compared to fourth-quarter 2025 it was down 0.3 percent, according to government data.
Mass baccarat GGR in the first three months of 2026 was up 6.5 percent on the prior-year period’s MOP34.32 billion (US$4.26 billion), according to official market-composition figures issued on April 16, though quarter-on-quarter it rose only 0.9 percent.
Mr Umansky said the overall first-quarter GGR figure had been “better than expected… with the highest mass growth since third-quarter 2024”.
Seaport noted however that while market-wide first-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) were estimated to have grown circa 9 percent year-on-year, EBITDA margin had shown a “year-on-year decline” of circa 30 basis points.
Mr Umansky wrote: “The second quarter faces more difficult year-on-year comparisons, starting in May, and Macau will experience a material growth deceleration for the rest of 2026.”
This meant “market share gains, operating expenditure control and optimised player reinvestment and commissions strategies will become more important in a lower growth market,” he suggested.
The analyst said that in Macau, Sands China Ltd was estimated to have had the strongest top-line revenue growth year-on-year in the first quarter, followed by Wynn Macau Ltd.
Sands China, Wynn Macau Ltd and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd “likely saw the largest year-on-year EBITDA increases,” stated Mr Umansky.
