Macau’s July casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is likely to fall 12 percent year-on-year, mirroring the decline recorded in June, says brokerage CLSA Ltd.
“We lower our projection for July and we think consensus downward revision is possible,” wrote analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Evan Wan in a Friday note.
“As we insert the June actual GGR and lower our July forecast to -12 percent year-on-year, we cut our 2026 GGR forecast by 2 percent,” CLSA added.
“We now expect only 2 percent year-on-year growth for 2026 GGR to MOP253.2 billion [US$31.36 billion]. For 2026, we are 3.5 percent below Bloomberg consensus,” added the institution.
A reason further downward revisions were possible, said CLSA, is that “current consensus GGR growth for 2026 implies acceleration of daily GGR in second-half 2026 to MOP729 million per day,” versus an actual first-half average of MOP701 million per day, the brokerage stated.
Nonetheless, CLSA said a possible cause for optimism was that GGR per overnight visitor appeared to have increased in the second quarter, based on its own research, as well as data from the city’s casino regulator and Macau’s Statistics and Census Service.
“We believe premium patrons remained a key support of Macau’s GGR in the quarter,” the brokerage stated.
CLSA added: “By our calculation, Macau’s overall GGR per overnight visitor grew 7 percent year-on-year to MOP15,836 per overnight visitor across April and May 2026, the latest available data.
“This is compared with the GGR per total visitations of MOP6,133 per head, which is flat year-on-year.”
In the first five months this year, Macau had 11.25 million same-day visitors, up 17.6-percent year-on-year. The tally of overnight visitors was 6.89 million, up 2.0 percent year-on-year, show government data.
Macau logged nearly 21 million visitor arrivals in the first half of 2026, up circa 9 percent year-on-year, according to recent commentary from the city’s Public Security Police.
For second-quarter earnings season for Macau’s six operators, due to start soon, CLSA anticipates Macau’s gaming sector earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to have fallen 8.6 percent year-on-year, to US$1.85 billion, as “margin remains under pressure”.
The brokerage further noted: “VIP win rates in the quarter were likely below usual based on channel checks.”
According to CLSA’s industry checks, Macau had recorded “below-usual VIP win rate in seven out of the nine data sets” in the second quarter.
For the seven sets mentioned, Macau’s VIP win rate “ranged from 2.00 percent to 3.00 percent,” and would have a negative effect on concessionaires’ profitability, it noted.
“Still, Macau’s daily GGR should pick up from mid-July,” added CLSA. That would coincide with a period following the FIFA World Cup 2026 final on July 19. Investment analysts have commented on a fall-off in June demand for Macau casino gaming, coinciding with the global football tournament.
Banking group Citi said in a recent note that it anticipated the second quarter this year to have been one of the toughest trading periods for Macau casinos in the post-pandemic era, i.e., since normalisation of tourism in January 2023.
CLSA stated in its Friday memo: “While the second quarter is typically a seasonally low period, the FIFA World Cup and the ongoing premium-driven revenue do not help on the margin side.
“As such, our projected reported EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 represents 24.3 percent of the sector’s GGR compared with 26.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025.”
