Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) result of MOP18.29 billion (US$2.28 billion) for September, announced on Wednesday, represented a 17.5 percent sequential decline, or “-14.7 percent per day” compared to August, stated Deutsche Bank Securities Inc, in a recent memo.
Analyst Steven Pizzella stated: “The 14.7 percent sequential decrease per day was approximately 920 basis points lower than historical trends, as the average sequential decline in September, relative to August, over the 2013 to 2019 period, was -5.5 percent.”
August GGR – at MOP22.16 billion – had also marked the best monthly performance since January 2020, just before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In late September, the city’s casinos had to suspend temporarily their operations for 33 hours, due to the passage of Super Typhoon Ragasa.
In the immediate aftermath, some industry experts had thought September GGR might be hurt by at least 5 percent, due to the disruption. Nonetheless, in year-on-year terms, September GGR rose 6.0 percent
A note issued on Wednesday by brokerage JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd was titled “Typhoon? What typhoon? Macau stays resilient”.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian wrote: “We estimate the typhoon shaved 5 to 10 percent off monthly GGR – roughly three weekdays’ worth – implying September would have easily delivered double-digit growth absent the storm.”
Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, stated in a Wednesday note that his institution expected Macau-market GGR growth for full-year 2025 of 8.4 percent, with growth picking up pace to reach 12.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to 8.3 percent in the first half.
“Growth should be driven by increased marketing and, importantly, continued ease of money outflows, along with robust visa issuance,” suggested Mr Umansky.
He was referring latterly to public policy in mainland China, the main feeder market for Macau tourism. The Chinese mainland has delivered most of the large volume of tourists to the city during the ongoing October Golden Week.
For the remainder of the year and beyond, “continued entertainment events will further help support demand,” suggested Mr Umansky.
The analyst added, referring to the trade tariff policies of the U.S. leader, President Donald Trump: “A trade deal between the U.S. and China is likely to further boost consumer confidence and willingness to spend and travel to Macau, and any improvement in China consumer confidence would help drive overnight base mass recovery.”
Two of the brokerages expect October GGR this year to increase by up to 13 percent year-on-year, to about MOP23 billion, on the back of a robust performance during the October Golden Week.
October Golden Week is a major festive break for mainland China consumers and a peak trading period for Macau’s casinos. Mainland China is the main feeder market for Macau’s tourism sector.
China’s State Council has designated this year’s holiday period on the mainland as running from October 1 to 8, encompassing China’s National Day on October 1 and the lunar calendar-based Mid-Autumn Festival, which this year falls on October 6.
