Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd forecast in a Monday memo that Macau’s June casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) would be between 1 percent and 3 percent higher year-on-year, maintaining a cautious view expressed a week earlier.
In a June 10 note it had thought such June GGR might be between 3 percent and 5 percent higher year-on-year.
The institution said it was sticking to its trimmed estimate due in part to a low hold rate for VIP baccarat so far in June.
The brokerage made its latest forecast in the light of channel checks indicating Macau casinos collected about MOP17.2 billion (US$2.14 billion) in GGR in the first 23 days of June.
The casinos raked in GGR at the rate of about MOP747 million a day, on average – roughly the same daily volume as a year ago.
Sanford Bernstein estimated that the volume in the VIP market was about the same so far in June as in May this year, but that the hold rate was below the normalised range.
It estimated that month-on-month performance in mass-market GGR was somewhere between flat and 5 percent up.
The institution predicted that Macau casinos would find it easier to record year-on-year GGR improvement in June and July this year, due to an easing of growth levels seen in the second half last year compared to the first six months of 2018.
Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhuhai said in commentary on Macau’s longer-term outlook: “Improvements in transportation infrastructure, continued growth of the premium consuming class in China and the opening and ramping-up of new casino resorts will support long-term growth in mass.”
The brokerage added: “With strong premium consumer growth in China forecasted over the long run, Macau’s secular growth story remains intact.”
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"The most worrying [thing] is whether [mainland] China will again tighten the issuance of travel visas [for visits to Macau]"
Luiz Lam Kai Kuong
Macau junket investor