• About Us
  • The Team
  • Advertise with Us

The latest news on the gaming industry in Asia

() () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () ()
  • Home
  • Macau
  • Philippines
  • Singapore
  • Japan
  • Rest of Asia
  • World
  • Features
  • Industry Talk
  • Trends & Tech
  • follow
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • RSS Feed
    • LinkedIn

Brokers expect drop in August casino GGR in Macau

Aug 02, 2019 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck  


Brokers expect drop in August casino GGR in Macau

Stockbrokers are now forecasting that gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau casinos will be lower in August than a year ago or, at best, just a touch higher.

Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd and the stockbroking arms of Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan and Nomura all issued on Thursday notes to investors that make forecasts for August in the light of Macau casino GGR in July.

The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau published that day data indicating that July GGR fell to MOP24.45 billion (US$3.03 billion), 3.5 percent less than a year earlier.

The stockbroking arm of Nomura forecasts that Macau casino GGR will be between MOP25 billion and MOP26 billion in August – that is, between 5 percent lower than a year ago, or about the same as in July 2018.

“August should mark the last of the tough comparisons in Macau,” the Nomura note said. “The about 0 percent to 5 percent year-on-year decline we estimate for August is roughly consistent with July’s minus 3.5 percent year-on-year change. However, we expect positive GGR growth to resume in September, given much easier one-year growth comps for the balance of the year.”

JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd forecasts that Macau casino GGR will be between 1 percent lower and 1 percent higher in August than a year ago. The brokerage note said the forecast reflects the probability of disruption to the casino business in Macau caused by typhoons and by political unrest in the streets of the nearby city of Hong Kong, and the improbability of the casinos collecting as much revenue as they collected in August 2018, an uncommonly busy month.

The stockbroker’s forecast for August implies that Macau casino GGR will be the same in the third quarter of 2019 as a year earlier.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc forecasts that Macau casino GGR will be 4.8 percent lower in August than a year ago.  “Over the last seven years, August win per day has been about 3.1 percent stronger than the win per day in July,” it said.

“Given the July result (US$98.7 million win per day), this math would imply a win per day in August of about US$101.8 million and a full-month result of about US$3.16 billion, down 5.1 percent year on year, and a two-year stack comparison of plus 11.2 percent.”

The stockbroker now forecasts that Macau casino GGR will be 1.1 percent lower in the third quarter of 2019 than a year earlier, and that it will be 0.8 percent lower in all of 2019 than the year before.

Sanford C. Bernstein forecasts that Macau casino GGR in August will be either the same in August as a year ago, or up to 2 percent higher.

“Going into second half of 2019, we may see surprise on the upside if VIP rebounds. One area of potential high-end GGR stabilisation and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China, which may support VIP recovery in the second half,” the Sanford C. Bernstein note said.

“Continued weakness in China macro data and tensions with US-China trade relations, however, still cast uncertainty over the GGR recovery. If a trade war sustains over an extended period, it will likely pose a headwind to China’s economy and gaming spend from China’s high-net-worth individuals in Macau.”


  • tweet
Related articles
  • Investors see 2H Macau gain, rebound 2022: Bernstein
    Investors see 2H Macau gain, rebound...

    Jan 19, 2021  

  • Mass market play record 65pct Macau GGR in 4Q: govt
    Mass market play record 65pct Macau GGR...

    Jan 15, 2021  

More news
  • Digital yuan eventually for Macau mass bets mulls Bernstein
    Digital yuan eventually for Macau mass...

    Jan 22, 2021  

  • Macau Covid-19 case no bar to mainland travel ties
    Macau Covid-19 case no bar to mainland...

    Jan 22, 2021  


Latest News

Digital yuan eventually for Macau mass bets mulls Bernstein

Digital yuan eventually for Macau mass bets mulls Bernstein

Jan 22, 2021  

Were China’s central government-backed digital yuan (CNY) to be adopted in Macau for casino chip transactions, it could in the long run benefit mass and premium-mass play, as cross-border money...
Read More
Macau Covid-19 case no bar to mainland travel ties

Macau Covid-19 case no bar to mainland travel ties

Jan 22, 2021  

Mohegan seeks govt nod to delay Inspire opening

Mohegan seeks govt nod to delay Inspire opening

Jan 22, 2021  

Sign up to our FREE Newsletter

UB8V5.qr.16(Click here for more)

Partners

Pick of the Day

"The entire company is eagerly anticipating the launch of our newest themed destination – The Londoner Macao"

Wilfred Wong Ying Wai

President of Macau-based casino operator Sands China



Most Popular

  • Sands China sixth Macau op to pledge staff extra paymentSands China sixth Macau op to pledge staff extra payment January 21, 2021
  • Londoner Macao first phase launch Feb 8 says Sands ChinaLondoner Macao first phase launch Feb 8 says Sands China January 21, 2021
  • Melco likely to take on more debt for expansion: Moody’sMelco likely to take on more debt for expansion: Moody’s January 20, 2021
  • Macau Covid-19 case no bar to mainland travel tiesMacau Covid-19 case no bar to mainland travel ties January 22, 2021
  • Grand Lisboa Palace backer SJM taps circa US$1bln in notesGrand Lisboa Palace backer SJM taps circa US$1bln in notes January 21, 2021
Copyright 2014-2020 TEAM Publishing and Consultancy Ltd / All rights reserved
  • Code of Ethics
  • Privacy Policy
  • Useful Links
  • Contact Us