Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd and Nomura’s Instinet LLC have issued forecasts for gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau casinos of between 2 percent and 4 percent greater in May than a year ago. The stockbrokers made their forecasts in the light of their estimates of Macau casino GGR for the week ended May 26.
Sanford Bernstein issued a note on Monday saying Macau casino GGR will likely grown in May following a few months of year-on-year declines.
“Heading into late May and June, we expect year-on-year comparison to begin easing,” the note written by Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu said.
“We may see surprise on the upside if VIP rebounds (although not expecting a near-term rebound). One area of potential high-end GGR stabilisation and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China, which may support VIP recovery in the second half.”
The brokerage said its channel checks indicate that Macau casino GGR in the week ended May 26 flowed in at an average rate of MOP814 million (US$100.69 million) a day. That means GGR so far in May was MOP22.35 billion, coming in at an average daily rate 5 percent faster than in May last year.
The Sanford Bernstein analysts said volume in the VIP market for gaming was somewhere around 15 percent greater than in April, and that the hold rate was slightly lower. The note suggested GGR in the mass market was somewhere around 5 percent greater than in April.
A note issued by the stockbroking arm of Nomura on Monday also forecasts that Macau casino GGR will turn out to be between 2 percent and 4 percent greater in May than a year ago.
Nomura estimates that GGR flowed into Macau casinos at a rate of about MOP814 million a day that in the week ended May 26 – the same as the Sanford C. Bernstein estimate.
That means GGR so far in May is 4 percent to 5 percent greater than in the equivalent period a year ago.
The note said average daily volume per day in the VIP market was tracking 16 percent to 18 percent higher than in April, and that the VIP market hold percentage was 3.1 percent to 3.2 percent, in contrast to the normalised hold range of 2.7 percent to 3 percent.
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”I do not believe that this event [the collapse of a under-construction building in Sihanoukville] will slow down the issuance of [gaming] licences. Market forces will probably dictate the process as developers evaluate projected future demand for gaming in the region”
Senior partner at business consultancy Global Market Advisors