Banking group Citigroup said on Monday it was “conservatively” raising its forecast for Macau’s July casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) by 2.6 percent, to MOP20.0 billion (US$2.47 billion) from MOP19.5 billion previously.
The institution stated, citing industry sources, its “conservative” forecast was despite a circa 30 percent “jump” in daily GGR for the first six days of July – compared to the same period a year earlier – to about MOP717 million.
It suggested that had been “attributable to Jacky Cheung’s final three shows over the past weekend”. That was a reference to a popular Hong Kong pop singer, who had been performing a series of concerts since June, at Galaxy Arena on Cotai.
Citigroup had also linked June’s 19.0 percent year-on-year gain in GGR to the concert series.
Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau wrote in a Monday note, referring to other Hong Kong artists due to perform in Macau this month: “Although Macau will be hosting Aaron Kwok (at Studio City) and Sandy Lam (at Venetian Arena) for concerts later this month, we expect some moderation in GGR run rate after Jacky Cheung’s concert series.”
The institution’s forecast implied circa MOP628 million per day GGR for the rest of July.
If realised, MOP20.0 billion in GGR for July would be a 7.6 percent gain on July 2024’s MOP18.6 billion, show data from the city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. Such a MOP20.0-billion figure would also represent 81.8 percent of the nearly MOP24.5 billion GGR achieved in July 2019, the trading year prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Citigroup analysts said Macau GGR in the first six days of July was approximately MOP4.3 billion. “This implies a daily run-rate of circa MOP717 million, approximately 2 percent higher versus June 2025 (MOP702 million per day),” they added.
The institution also stated that for the first six days of July – and based on industry sources – VIP volumes were largely flat month-on-month and mass GGR rose circa 2 percent to 4 percent month-on-month. “VIP hold rate appears to be higher than normal,” added the analysts.
