Citigroup suggests in its latest memo on the Macau gaming market that the local industry “is reaching an inflection point for good”. The banking institution’s analysts say they “remain bullish on Macau’s gaming sector”; Citi forecasts gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth for the second half of the year to reach 6 percent year-on-year, translating to an increase of 4 percent for full-year 2025, or circa MOP235.7 billion (US$29.15 billion).
“The consecutive GGR beats in April and May, plus the strong start to the month of June, likely indicate that Macau is reaching an inflection point for good,” wrote analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau in Wednesday’s memo. “After a slow start to 2025, Macau is seeing GGR growth reacceleration in the second quarter of 2025 – 2 percent year-on-year in April, 5 percent year-on-year in May, and June is on track for another 5 percent year-on-year.”
They added: “Year-to-date, per capita spending on gaming – i.e. GGR divided by overnight visitation – remains largely unchanged, suggesting that players remain passionate about gaming and, more importantly, that the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade conflicts so far appear not to be discouraging them from playing.”
The banking institution said it expected “a glamorous event and concert line-up put together by [casino] operators” for the second half of 2025 would help drive GGR growth. This includes performances by artists popular among Chinese-speaking audiences, such as Jacky Cheung or Aaron Kwok, and international acts such as Australian soft rock duo Air Supply, and South Korean girl group TWICE.
Citi’s full-year GGR growth estimate is higher than the Macau government’s latest forecast, as the authorities recently revised their estimate from a 6-percent year-on-year growth to an increase of just 0.5 percent. “We view the government’s forecast as the bear-case scenario,” the Citi analysts said.
The team also refuted other investment-sector commentary regarding a potential decline in the quality of visitors to Macau.
“Simply dividing year-to-date GGR by total visitation would conclude that per capita spending on gaming has fallen by circa 10 percent, suggesting a decrease in player quality. We do not agree with this analysis,” Citi said.
Macau recorded approximately 13.0 million visitor arrivals in the first four months of 2025, up by 12.9 percent year-on-year.
The banking institution noted that a significant part of the increase in the number of visitors to Macau year-to-date related to people arriving from neighbouring Zhuhai, on the Chinese mainland. A recent visa policy change now allows Zhuhai residents to visit Macau once a week, “but the purpose of entry is unlikely to be gaming for most of them,” the Citi analysts wrote.
They added: “We think a better way to gauge the quality of real players is to compare GGR against overnight visitation, since most of the hotel rooms in Macau are comped to casino players. As year-to-date GGR growth and overnight visitation growth are largely similar, our analysis concludes that per capita gaming spending – and thus player quality – is holding up well.”
