Deutsche Bank Securities Inc estimates Macau’s third-quarter casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) will fall 18.2 percent sequentially, to the equivalent of about US$869.8 million, compared to the second quarter’s circa US$1.06-billion.
The forecast was given in a Thursday memo, following the Macau government’s release of the city’s August GGR, which was up 450 percent sequentially from July’s recent-records low.
Deutsche Bank thinks third-quarter mass-market GGR will be US$583.0 million, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.4 percent on the second quarter’s US$814.2 million.
It expects though that third-quarter VIP GGR will actually go up 15.2 percent sequentially, to be US$286.8 million, from US$249.0 million.
Macau’s August GGR aggregate was just under MOP2.19 billion (US$270.8 million), but that was still down 50.7 percent year-on-year, according to data from the local regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
“The GGR result for August represents a 91.0 percent shortfall relative to the GGR achieved in August of 2019,” said the note from analyst Carlo Santarelli, referring to the last full trading year before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Nonetheless, the institution expected a large sequential improvement in fourth-quarter Macau GGR. It thought that could rise 259.6 percent sequentially, to circa US$3.13 billion.
For full-year 2022, Deutsche Bank lowered its estimate for Macau casino GGR to nearly US$7.29 billion, down 33.0 percent from 2021.
