GGRAsia – Early Jan Macau mass GGR at 105pct of 2019: JP Morgan

Early Jan Macau mass GGR at 105pct of 2019: JP Morgan

Jan 10, 2024 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first seven days of January was estimated at MOP4.4 billion (US$546.6 million), “producing a solid start to 2024”, says a Monday note from JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd, citing its own channel checks.

It marked a run-rate of MOP630 million a day, versus MOP599 million a day in December, “which was already a beat,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li.

“This was, obviously, boosted by solid traffic over the New Year holiday, but is still impressive and comforting nonetheless,” they stated.

The analysts added: “By segment, the number indicates mass GGR was running at 105 percent to 110 percent of pre-Covid levels (versus circa 105 percent in the fourth quarter), while VIP was around flattish month-on-month at around 20 percent.”

While Macau’s GGR is “due to slow down seasonally” for the balance of January ahead of the Chinese New Year period, JP Morgan expects January to produce revenue of between MOP17.5 billion and MOP18 billion, “which should still satisfy market expectations”.

The Chinese New Year holiday period falls on February 10 this year, and runs until February 17.

Macau casino industry fourth-quarter 2023 earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are likely to show an 8 percent to 9 percent rise sequentially when reporting for the relevant period begins later this month, stated the brokerage.

Industry-wide, such fourth-quarter EBITDA will likely “hit circa 85 percent of pre-Covid levels”, versus a “80-percent recovery in the third quarter”, added the institution.