Macau’s casino industry is likely to experience a temporary slowdown in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the FIFA World Cup 2026, but the weakness could create a buying opportunity for investors among the city’s gaming stocks, according to a recent note from Citigroup.
The institution said historical analysis suggests major international football tournaments tend to divert part of Macau players’ betting budgets towards sports-related events.
With this year’s World Cup running from today (Thursday, June 11) to July 19 and featuring an expanded format of 48 teams and 104 matches, Citi believes this tournament’s impact could be more pronounced than those of previous editions.
“We anticipate a near-term slowdown in Macau GGR due to the most prestigious soccer tournament” starting this month, wrote analyst George Choi.
The bank forecasts Macau casino GGR to decline by 10 percent year-on-year in June and by 5 percent year-on-year in July, “before a swift recovery driven by a strong post-tournament event calendar”.
Citi pointed to UEFA Euro 2024 – held between June 14 and July 14 – as a recent example. During that tournament, Macau’s daily GGR reportedly fell to a low of MOP514 million (US$63.7 million) per day, about 17 percent below the market’s 2024 daily average of MOP620 million.
“Macau GGR took similar dives during both the FIFA World Cup in 2018 and UEFA Euro 2016,” Mr Choi noted.
“If history repeats itself, this year’s major soccer tournament could have a more severe impact due to its new format and the unprecedented 104 total matches,” he added.
Notwithstanding the expected near-term softness, Citi said it remained positive on Macau gaming equities, noting that sector valuations remain below their historical average.
“Despite this temporary slowdown, we remain bullish on Macau,” the analyst stated, adding that Macau gaming stocks were currently trading at around 7.3 times forward enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation, compared with a long-term average of approximately 11.4 times.
The brokerage said a strong programme of entertainment and sporting events in Macau after the World Cup should help support a recovery in visitor arrivals and gaming demand, anticipating GGR to grow circa 5.7 percent year-on-year in the second half of 2026.
“We anticipate a swift GGR recovery immediately after the tournament in mid-July, led by a busy calendar of star-studded concerts and events,” Mr Choi stated.
Among the catalysts cited were major concerts – including by K-pop groups Babymonster, TWS, Enhypen, and Taiwan singer Zhao Chuan – and the NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.
“This strong non-gaming line-up should attract visitors and stimulate spending, ensuring a return to positive GGR growth for the rest of the year,” the analyst added.
