Moody’s Ratings expects gaming revenue across Asia to grow by around 5 percent to 6 percent over the next 12 to 18 months. However, the ratings agency warns that the pace of expansion is likely to vary by market, depending on the sensitivity of each market’s core customers to fuel-price changes.
“Gaming revenue will continue to grow moderately, though uncertainty over fuel prices will have a lesser impact on demand within Macau than in Southeast Asia,” Moody’s said in a sector in-depth report on the region’s casino gaming industry, released on Tuesday.
The ratings agency forecast that Macau’s casino sector would lead regional growth, “while Southeast Asia’s growth will moderate”.
Its team of analysts suggested that Macau would benefit from mainland Chinese consumers’ preference for short-haul domestic travel, supporting gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of 6 percent in 2026 and 4 percent to 5 percent in the following year.
“These levels imply GGR will reach around 90 percent of 2019 levels in 2026 and 90 percent to 95 percent in 2027, reflecting a structurally smaller VIP segment, which we expect to remain at around 30 percent or lower of total GGR,” Moody’s said.
“Southeast Asian gaming operators are more exposed to higher energy prices than their Macau counterparts because of their greater reliance on air arrivals for inbound tourism,” the report said. Consequently, “we expect gaming revenue in Southeast Asia to grow only in the low single-digits” in 2026 and 2027.
Moody’s said that, in Macau, “more rational competition”, together with property ramp-ups across major operators, and new openings, would further support solid growth in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
Among upcoming openings, it cited the launch of the REM hotel by Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd, which is expected to open progressively starting this quarter. In 2027, new offerings are expected to include the renovated hotel rooms at The Venetian Macao by Sands China Ltd, as well as Galaxy Macau’s Phase 4, owned by Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.
The ratings agency expects combined annual EBITDA generated in Macau to grow by 6 percent to 7 percent in 2026, reaching between US$8.6 billion and US$8.7 billion.
It added: “Mid-single-digit GGR growth, combined with more rational reinvestment spending and tighter cost control, will support EBITDA growth.”
Genting, NagaCorp
Outside Macau, Malaysia’s Genting Bhd will see adjusted EBITDA “grow modestly to MYR8.9 billion [US$2.18 billion] to MYR10.0 billion over 2026–2027, from MYR8.2 billion in 2025, as it continues to ramp up its new casino operations in New York City,” Moody’s said.
That was a reference to Genting Bhd’s expansion of Resorts World New York City, where the group has pledged a US$5.5-billion investment through to 2030, to secure a full-service casino licence.
Earnings from the Genting group’s Malaysia operations – namely its casino monopoly at Resorts World Genting near Kuala Lumpur – “will remain broadly stable over the period, as higher operating costs largely offset top-line growth,” Moody’s said.
As for its unit Genting Singapore Ltd – which operates Resorts World Sentosa, one of Singapore’s two casino resorts – earnings will decline by around 5 percent to about SGD836 million (US$647.8 million) in 2026 from SGD888 million in 2025, “amid intense competition and elevated cost pressures”, before “recovering modestly” to around SGD880 million in 2027, according to Moody’s.
NagaCorp Ltd’s adjusted EBITDA “will remain around US$400 million annually, supported by steady visitation and its low-cost structure”. The company holds a long-term casino monopoly in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, where it operates the NagaWorld casino resort.
Leverage improvement “will continue” over the next 18 months, but “at varying paces” across Macau and Southeast Asia, Moody’s said. Most operators in Macau “will see leverage improve mainly through EBITDA growth, although elevated capital spending, reinvestment and shareholder returns will constrain free cash flow for debt reduction”.
Moody’s, however, cautioned that SJM Holdings Ltd’s leverage was expected to “remain elevated in 2026 before accretion from reallocated satellite tables grow further”.
In Southeast Asia, the Genting group’s leverage “will stay high” over the 2026–2027 period because of heavy capital spending, while NagaCorp will maintain very low leverage, the ratings agency added.
Moody’s said it expected the casino industry in Asia as a whole to face low refinancing risks, “supported by solid liquidity and market sentiment”.
For Macau-focused operators, bond maturities are concentrated in 2028 and 2029, at around US$4.5 billion to US$5.0 billion annually, it noted.
