GGRAsia – Higher VIP hold boosts GGR in early July: brokerages

Higher VIP hold boosts GGR in early July: brokerages

Jul 09, 2019 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Brokerage Nomura says it expects Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in July to grow by about 5 percent year-on-year, assuming the monthly tally increases sequentially in July in line with the trailing seven-year average improvement seen relative to the month of June. The brokerage flagged in a Monday memo a strong start to the month.

The Nomura team said it estimated average daily GGR in the first week of July was about MOP850 million (US$105.8 million), up roughly 7 percent sequentially.

By segment, the brokerage judged that average daily mass growth was up between 5 percent and 7 percent versus the average in June, and VIP hold was circa 3.3 percent – higher than the “normalised” hold range of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent. “VIP volume growth is tracking about 6 percent to 8 percent lower sequentially compared with last month’s average,” noted the Nomura analysts.

The institution’s analysts stated: “We estimate GGR for the month will settle around MOP26 billion to MOP27 billion … We expect improved growth for the balance of the year, given easier one-year growth comps in September-November.”

Casino GGR in Macau rose by 5.9 percent year-on-year in June, to just above MOP23.81 billion, according to official data. June’s tally marked the third time this year that the city’s casino industry reported monthly growth in terms of GGR.

The latest result meant the Macau market’s GGR tally for the first half of 2019 stood at about MOP149.50 billion, a year-on-year contraction of 0.5 percent.

Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd suggested in a Monday note that Macau’s July casino GGR could be up to 4 percent higher year-on-year. Citing its own channel checks, the brokerage also estimates an average daily rate of about MOP850 million for the first seven days of July, up 3 percent from the prior-year period.

“VIP volume is estimated to be down mid to high single digits month-on-month, but VIP GGR is helped by a better than normalised hold rate,” said the Sanford Bernstein team.

“For July, we estimate GGR growth to range from +2 percent to +4 percent year-on-year. Year-on-year comparison began to ease in June as expected, and it should continue as we head into July,” the analysts added.