Second-quarter growth in Macau’s VIP casino gross gaming revenue (GGR)is likely to decelerate compared to the first quarter, “partly on potential slowing VIP demand and more difficult comparison” judged year-on-year, said a Wednesday report from brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.
It might contribute to a sequential contraction in Macau GGR in the three months to June 30, compared to the first quarter, the institution added.
“We expect to see some deceleration in second-quarter [total] GGR to +16 percent year-on-year (-3 percent quarter-on-quarter),” said the brokerage, adding that second-quarter VIP GGR might moderate to +16 percent growth year-on-year, and -4 percent contraction judged quarter-on-quarter.
“The VIP model will continue to face structural headwinds from a tightening regulatory environment and continued efforts by China to stem capital outflows,” noted the report authors, Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Cathy Huang.
“VIP GGR continued with strong growth (+22 percent year-on-year, +4 percent quarter-on-quarter) in the fourth quarter [of 2017]; January continued to exhibit strength in VIP, but we observed significant deceleration in VIP in February,” wrote the analysts.
Market-wide Macau GGR rose 5.7 percent year-on-year in February, to MOP24.30 billion (US$3.01 billion), according to data from the city’s regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, released on March 1. January GGR expanded 36.4 percent year-on-year.
Sanford Bernstein expects full first-quarter GGR for VIP and mass-market play combined to grow by 18 percent year-on-year and 3 percent quarter-on-quarter. That would in likelihood be driven by 23 percent year-on-year improvement in VIP – up 6 percent measured quarter-on-quarter – and 13 percent year-on-year expansion in mass GGR, i.e., 1 percent improvement on the first quarter, it said.
The institution raised “slightly” its estimate for full-year 2018 GGR growth to 11 percent. It said the new estimate comprised “mass year-on-year growth of 12 percent (up from 11 percent) and VIP growth of 9.5 percent year-on-year (up from 8 percent), coupled with industry-wide earnings before interest, taxation, amortisation and depreciation year-on-year growth of 13 percent (up from 10 percent)”.
Jun 30, 2022The Macau government announced on Thursday the cancellation of a plan for a nucleic acid test certificate requirement with 48 hour validity, for casino staff, casino customers and official visitors...
"During our six years in office, we were able to record more than PHP300 billion [in revenue]"
Chairman of the Philippines’ gaming regulator Pagcor