April gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the Macau market is heading for year-on-year growth of between 20 percent and 21 percent, but “could surprise on the upside,” said a Monday note from brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. That forecast was slightly higher than the latest estimate by brokerage Nomura, pointing to a growth rate of 18 percent to 22 percent.
Both forecasts were based on industry unofficial data, including market-wide daily betting volumes and hold rates for VIP gambling seen in the calendar month up to April 22 inclusive.
“Assuming a GGR average daily rate of MOP780 million (US$96.6 million) to MOP820 million for the remaining days of the month, we estimate April GGR to a range of MOP24.1 billion and MOP24.5 billion, an estimated year-on-year increase in April of +20 percent to +21 percent,” wrote analysts Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Cathy Huang from Sanford Bernstein.
Japanese brokerage Nomura stated in a Monday note that “assuming GGR per day settles at around MOP800 million for the rest of the month, we estimate GGR growth will be approximately 18 percent to 22 percent for April, or approximately 350 basis points ahead of the latest Consensus Metrix estimate (+16.5 percent year-on-year) at the midpoint”.
Analyst DS Kim of JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd said in a Monday memo that month-to-date GGR implied “a strong +21 percent growth year-on-year” for the whole of April.
He added the April growth could have been higher, but for a slowdown likely linked to a build up to a public holiday early next week.
“Last week’s GGR of MOP785 million per day (April 16-22), compared to approximately MOP825 million per day in the first 15 days, reflects a seasonal slowdown ahead of the Labour Day holiday (three days during April 29 – May 1),” wrote Mr Kim.
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"The Macau recovery continues to be disrupted by false starts, while the lack of [Chinese] public holidays for rest of the year should cap the pace of the rebound”
Andrew Lee and David Katz
Analysts at brokerage Jefferies LLC