Macau’s daily run-rate of casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 24 days of March stood at MOP621 million (US$77.1 million), meaning an aggregate of about MOP14.9 billion in the period, said JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd in a Monday memo, citing industry checks.
The observed daily run-rate in March was “only 1 percent to 2 percent below” the average of MOP630 million a day in the first two months of 2024, “a tad better than historical trend of -4 percent” in March versus the January and February period, wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li.
“This also suggests that last week’s run-rate remained steady and solid at MOP628 million a day (flat week-on-week), showing no sign of slowdown in underlying demand,” they added.
The brokerage estimates mass GGR – including slots – to be “running at circa 110 percent of pre-Covid levels month-to-date,” which it said was in-line with the trend for the first two months of 2024.
“This compares with a 104-percent recovery in fourth-quarter 2023, suggesting mass gaming demand can grow by +3 percent to 4 percent quarter-on-quarter in first-quarter 2024, to outperform the historical seasonality of +2 percent quarter-on-quarter,” stated the institution.
Macau’s VIP volume “seems to have remained at around mid-20s of percent” versus pre-Covid, “showing little sign of change in underlying demand,” said the analysts.
“We continue to model March to print a GGR of circa MOP19 billion, which will drive first-quarter GGR to grow 5 percent quarter-on-quarter – or over 60 percent year-on-year – to be yet another post-pandemic highs,” they added.
