GGRAsia – Macau casino revenue heads for Aug decline: Credit Suisse

Macau casino revenue heads for Aug decline: Credit Suisse

Aug 12, 2014 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Average daily casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau was flat for the first 11 days of August when judged year-on-year, said a note on Tuesday by Hong Kong-based analysts at Credit Suisse AG.

The bank estimated GGR for the first 11 days of the month at MOP10.9 billion (approximately US$1.4 billion), a number gleaned from unofficial industry returns. That implies an average daily revenue (ADR) of MOP990 million, it added.

It thinks if the daily revenue trend continues for the month in a range of MOP950 million to MOP1 billion per day, it could result in a year-on-year contraction in Macau gaming revenue of between -3 percent and -1 percent.

But Credit Suisse adds: “Channel checks suggested mass-market momentum is improving with +20 percent year-on-year growth while VIP rolling chips volume remained largely steady month-on-month.”

The bank said of Macau gaming shares: “In our view, the recent correction has largely priced in the moderating mass-market growth trend already and we see limited downside from here.”

According to a filing with Nasdaq on July 31, T. Rowe Price, a U.S.-based global investment firm regarded as one of the most knowledgeable institutional investors in the gaming industry, increased its shareholding in Wynn Resorts Ltd, the U.S.-based parent firm of Wynn Macau Ltd, to 11.3 percent from approximately 7 percent previously. Several analysts suggested to GGRAsia that showed continued faith in the Macau story but a change of emphasis in capital allocation, given that the U.S. parents’ ownership of the Hong Kong-listed gaming entities is somewhat diluted.

Union Gaming Research Ltd said in a note on Tuesday: “Last week, shares of Macau casino operators sold off sharply on the news that July’s mass market growth slowed to a rate of ‘only’ 17 percent. Importantly, we don’t think a single casino operator has ever expected mass market to continue to grow north of 30 percent into the back-half of 2014 suggesting a wide discrepancy between sell-side consensus and the industry.”