Macau’s casino sector is likely to post in December its smallest monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR) decline as measured in year-on-year terms since January. But, according to two brokerages, GGR is still poised to retreat by at least 20 percent from the prior-year period.
“Our channel checks indicate that Macau’s gaming average daily revenue (ADR) for last week (December 7 to 13) was in the range of about MOP570 million [US$71.4 million] to MOP590 million, higher than the previous week’s ADR of MOP540 million to MOP580 million,” said brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd in a note issued from Hong Kong on Monday.
“Assuming an ADR of MOP540 million to MOP580 million for the remainder of this month, December GGR would be MOP17.1 million to MOP18.1 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 22 percent to 26 percent,” said the brokerage’s analysts Vitaly Umansky, Simon Zhang and Bo Wen.
Macau posted a year-on-year casino GGR decline of 17.4 percent in January. Since then, monthly GGR had dropped by percentages ranging from 28.4 percent (October) to 48.6 percent (February) measured in year-on-year terms.
The projected improved GGR performance in December is positively affected by easier year-on-year comparisons. Macau’s casino industry has been posting monthly year-on-year declines since June 2014. But it was in December 2014 that the first decrease above 25 percent – amounting to a 30.4 percent decline – was recorded. December was also the month in 2014 with the lowest GGR tally – MOP23.3 billion.
Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli stated in a Monday note – also based on unofficial industry returns for the first 13 days of December – that Macau is likely to post in December a year-on-year GGR decline of between 20.7 percent and 22.8 percent.
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