Average daily revenue (ADR) at Macau casinos in the first six days of December is slightly higher than November’s ADR, but is still tracking for a decline of at least 23 percent year-on-year, say a number of investment analysts.
“Our channel checks indicate that Macau’s gaming ADR for last week (December 1-6) was in the range of [about] MOP540 million [US$67.6 million] to MOP580 million, slightly higher than November’s ADR of MOP548 million,” said a note issued on Monday by Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.
“Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the month through December 6th was MOP3.25 billion to MOP3.5 billion,” said analysts Vitaly Umansky, Simon Zhang and Bo Wen. Assuming the same ADR for the remainder of the month, “December GGR would be MOP16.8 billion to MOP18.0 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 23 percent to 28 percent,” they added.
Casino GGR in Macau plunged 32.3 percent year-on-year in November to about MOP16.43 billion, according to official data. It was the lowest monthly GGR tally since September 2010.
Volumes in both mass and VIP segments however appear to be steady, analysts at Daiwa Securities Group Inc wrote in a note on Monday.
“Our research on the ground reveals consistent week-on-week volumes in both mass and VIP segments, with the win rate being a slight negative influence over the past week,” said Daiwa analysts Jamie Soo, Adrian Chan and Jennifer Wu.
“At current run rates, we expect the full-month December GGR to see a 23 percent year-on-year decline,” they added.
Analyst Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc said GGR per day in the first six days of December was up about 5 percent versus the prior period, from November 22 to 30.
“We estimate the month [December] is tracking to a range for the month of down 23.0 percent to 25.0 percent,” said Mr Santarelli.
The Sanford Bernstein team said it expects December’s GGR year-on-year decline rate “to taper off a low base”.
“President Xi Jinping visited Macau for the 15th anniversary of Macau’s handover to China [in December 2014], which we believe negatively impacted Macau’s GGR,” said the analysts.
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"The most worrying [thing] is whether [mainland] China will again tighten the issuance of travel visas [for visits to Macau]"
Luiz Lam Kai Kuong
Macau junket investor