Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for December is currently tracking at a year-on-year increase of between 4 percent and 6 percent, suggest two brokerages. If the final monthly tally confirms that prediction, it would mean five consecutive months of year-on-year GGR growth for the city’s casino industry.
“According to our industry sources, based on gaming play for the first 26 days of December, GGR in Macau for the month is estimated to be tracking at just under +5 percent year-on-year, a deceleration from last week’s +10 percent estimate,” said Telsey Advisory Group LLC in a note on Tuesday.
“This assumes an electronic game estimate for December, which puts monthly GGR at HKD18.6 billion [US$2.4 billion],” added analysts David Katz and Brian Davis.
Christopher Jones of the Buckingham Research Group Inc noted that for the eight days ended December 26, average daily revenue stood at HKD570 million, amounting to an aggregate of HKD14.8 billion month-to-date, which reflects “a slight slowdown from the prior week level of HKD600 million”.
“We would attribute the week-to-week moderation to seasonality and the addition of an extra weekday versus last week,” said Mr Jones in a note on Tuesday.
He added: “Looking forward, we are maintaining our 4 percent to 6 percent GGR growth outlook for December, with an expectation of a strong finish to the month, going into western New Years.”
Buckingham Research’s Mr Jones said the institution was maintaining its fourth quarter 2016 GGR outlook, “which assumes a 9 percent increase for the quarter, with expectations for mass market GGR to increase in the 11 percent to 12 percent range and for VIP to be flat to -1 percent”. The brokerage noted that its VIP and mass market estimates were presented as reported by Macau’s casino operators.
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”We expect Goa to quickly become a US$1 billion market as it transitions to land-based casinos (from US$150 million today), which is still just a fraction of India’s total GGR potential of US$10 billion to US$17 billion”
Analyst at Union Gaming Securities Asia