Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first five days of February is estimated at MOP1.9 billion (US$235.1 million) – or MOP380 million per day – a level that suggests a “45 percent plus” recovery when compared to pre-Covid 19 levels in 2019, suggests JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd in a Monday memo.
The institution’s GGR estimate for the first five days of the current month, based on its checks, covers a period that included “a bit of boost from tail-end demand” post the Chinese New Year holiday, analyst DS Kim said in the update. Such demand seemed to have been assisting more the high-end mass-market and VIP segments, rather than the general mass segment, he added.
Of the early February Macau GGR estimate, the analyst further noted: “We think the print [GGR performance] was better than expected, although the market may want to monitor the trends for a few more weeks to gain confidence, against ongoing debate and concern,” regarding the level of “sustainability” relative to the “strong January/lunar new year print”.
In January, Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP11.58 billion, or MOP374 million per day. The Chinese New Year holiday period for mainland China spanned January 21 to January 27 this time.
The estimated GGR numbers for the first five days of this month suggests that mass GGR recovered to “65 percent to 70 percent of pre-Covid levels”, the JP Morgan memo noted.
Mr Kim added: “At this level, all operators – perhaps except SJM [Holdings Ltd], given operating expense burden from Grand Lisboa Palace – should already and comfortably be printing positive free cash flow… an important milestone that we’ll be able to confirm with first-quarter results later.”
