GGRAsia – Macau GGR in June hit by seasonal slowdown: JP Morgan

Macau GGR in June hit by seasonal slowdown: JP Morgan

Jun 05, 2023 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) stood at MOP1.80 billion (US$223.0 million) in the first four days of June, estimated JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd, citing its own checks. That would imply a daily run-rate of MOP450 million, stated the brokerage in a Monday memo.

“This is in-line with second-half May’s run-rates (or 10 percent below May full-month) and within expectations, given seasonality,” wrote analysts DS Kim and Mufan Shi. “June is typically the weakest month of the year for Macau,” they said, advising against reading too much “from a four-day print”.

Macau recorded casino GGR of MOP15.57 billion in May, up 5.7 percent from April. GGR rose sequentially for the third consecutive month.

The latest monthly tally was up 365.9 percent from May 2022, according to data released on June 1 by the local regulator.

In Monday’s note, JP Morgan suggested that the aggregate level of GGR in Macau “will soften in June given seasonality”.

“But quarter-to-date trends suggest casinos will see strong second-quarter results that should continue to beat consensus, with mass and EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation] likely recovering 80-percent-plus and 65-percent-plus of pre-Covid levels,” stated the institution’s analysts.

They added: “Second-quarter results release will coincide with summer holiday season – which will be the first holiday since reopening with no hotel/labour constraints – by which time we hope the investment sentiment (for Macau, as well as Hong Kong/China) will stabilise to appreciate bottom-up fundamental improvements.”