The Macau government has reduced by about 5 percent its forecast for the city’s 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR).
The new estimate is MOP228 billion (US$28.2 billion) versus its projection of MOP240 billion made in November.
The information was given in a Tuesday media briefing by André Cheong Weng Chon, in his role as spokesman for Macau’s Executive Council. He is also the city’s Secretary for Administration and Justice. It was part of an overall adjusted public budget for financial year 2025.
The new GGR figure would represent year-on-year growth of 0.5 percent, versus the old estimate’s projected 5.8 percent year-on-year gain on 2024’s GGR of MOP226.78 billion.
Mr Cheong said the latest assessment has taken into account Macau’s current economic status, and the “actual” business condition of Macau’s gaming sector.
He stated that the revised budget plan for 2025 will be sent to the city’s Legislative Assembly for deliberation.
Taxes from gaming brought in 87.7 percent of the Macau government’s nearly MOP34.04-billion current revenue recorded in the four months to April 30.
Ho In Mui, deputy director of the Financial Services Bureau, said during Tuesday’s Executive Council briefing, that for the “gaming revenue estimates adjustment” in Macau’s revised 2025 government budget, “many factors” had been considered.
They included: “Global economic uncertainties, and the changes in consumption patterns – especially the visitors’ gaming spend.”
Ms Ho noted that on average, Macau GGR during the January to April period this year was approximately MOP19 billion per month, i.e., below the MOP20 billion the government had initially estimated last year.
The finance official stated: “While in the second half of this year, we might see some months” where gaming revenue “performance could exceed our expectation, we have to ensure we have sufficient income to support our expenses when making our annual budget plan”.
She added referring latterly to Macau’s status as a Special Administrative Region (SAR) within China: “After observing our fiscal income status in the first half of this year, we now assume that if we are reaching MOP19 billion [in GGR] a month – or MOP228 billion for the full year – that would make a balanced budget for the Macau SAR.”
In late April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) halved its forecast for Macau’s overall 2025 economic growth, citing factors including global trade tensions.
The IMF suggested Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) would expand by 3.6 percent this year, down from its previous estimate of 7.3 percent mentioned in October.
Latest analyst outlook on 2025 GGR
The news of the government’s new GGR estimate comes soon after a number of analysts adjusted their own forecasts for Macau 2025 GGR. They expect the year-on-year gain to be higher than the government’s outlook.
In a Sunday (June 1) memo, JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd said it thought Macau’s full-year 2025 GGR would grow circa 3 percent year-on-year to MOP232.1 billion.
The institution added it anticipated the sector’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to reach nearly US$7.77 billion in 2025, flat relative to 2024.
The JP Morgan team comprising analysts DS Kim and Selina Li, described the brokerage’s own revisions as its “first industry-wide earnings upgrade in about year”.
That followed a “better-than-feared” first-quarter earnings season for the Macau operators and two consecutive months – i.e., April and May – where actual GGR performance beat market estimates.
That had shown, suggested JP Morgan, that in Macau, “market demand and earnings” had been “far more resilient” than anticipated.
A Sunday memo from Seaport Research Partners estimated Macau’s 2025 GGR year-on-year growth would be circa 4 percent, driven by “increased marketing efforts by operators”, and “improving consumer trends in China”.
Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky stated: “While escalation of U.S. tariffs remains an overhang and parts of the China economy remain weak (i.e. consumer spend, real estate), we expect China’s focus on shoring up the economy and providing further stimulus to improve economic activity and consumer confidence in China in 2025.”
Mr Umansky suggested Macau’s ‘base-mass’ gambling segment would be the “key” to gaming revenue growth in the remainder of 2025, and in 2026.
While the premium-mass segment has been “strong” in the recovery period after the lifting of Covid-19 related travel restrictions in early 2023, the base mass segment had been “stubbornly weaker than anticipated”.
The Seaport analyst further noted: “Overall [Macau] mass GGR is currently running at approximately 114 percent of 2019 while VIP sits at approximately 26 percent.
“Within mass, premium is approximately 47 percent above 2019, while base mass continues to lag, about 17 percent below 2019,” as per the institution’s estimates.
He added, referring secondly to the Chinese mainland province next door to Macau that supplies many of the city’s mainland tourists: “Importantly, within base mass, while day-tripper business from Hong Kong and Guangdong is likely back to near pre-Covid levels… overnight [visitor] base mass has been weak, likely below 70 percent of pre-Covid levels.”
(Updated 4.33pm, June 3)
