Casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau in July is likely to grow by 10 percent to 12 percent in year-on-year terms, estimates brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd in Hong Kong. If the forecast proves accurate, it would be the third consecutive month year-on-year GGR growth in Macau – as measured in percentage terms – remained in the low teens of percent.
In a note issued on Monday, Sanford Bernstein cited unofficial industry data for the first eight days of July, and estimated daily GGR performance for the remaining of the month.
“Our channel checks indicate that Macau’s GGR [from July 1 to June 8] was approximately MOP6.6 billion [US$816.5 million], a month-to-date average daily rate of approximately MOP825 million,” wrote analysts Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Kelsey Zhu.
They added: “The two weekends and fewer World Cup matches during the period helped GGR to recover from weak performance [in the previous] week.” The latter was a reference to a reduction in Macau casino betting volume typically said to coincide with some major soccer tournaments.
“Assuming a GGR average daily rate of MOP810 million to MOP830 million for the remaining days of the month, we estimate July GGR to a range of MOP25.2 billion and MOP25.7 billion, an estimated year-on-year increase in July of +10 percent to +12 percent,” the Sanford Bernstein team stated.
The rate of year-on-year growth in Macau monthly GGR more than halved in May, to 12.1 percent, compared to April’s 27.6 percent expansion. In March the improvement had been 22.2 percent year-on-year, according to data released by the city’s casino regulator.
Last month, casino GGR rose by 12.5 percent year-on-year, to approximately MOP22.49 billion.
Some investment analysts covering the casino industry have attributed the recent slowdown in GGR growth in Macau in part to a more challenging environment in the VIP gaming segment.
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"I am not going to speculate on what the [casino licence refreshment] tender requirements would be. I have full confidence and faith in the Macau government to treat everyone fairly"
Wilfred Wong Ying Wai
President and chief operating officer of Macau-based casino operator Sands China