Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in June was well above expectations, with momentum likely to continue in the second half of 2025, said several brokerages on Tuesday. June’s GGR tally rose 19.0 percent year-on-year, to MOP21.06 billion (US$2.61 billion), according to official data.
The latest monthly tally was down 0.6 percent compared to May’s MOP21.19 billion, and represented circa 88 percent of June 2019 level. Last month’s result was still however the second-highest monthly tally post-Covid-19, showed the data.
JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd said in a Tuesday note that June’s GGR figure was a “really, really strong beat”.
The latest monthly tally “significantly beat the – already revised-up – consensus of plus 9 percent year-on-year,” wrote analysts DS Kim and Selina Li. “This is a really strong print, however you slice it,” they added.
The analysts stated: “June’s daily run-rate of MOP702 million was even higher than May’s (plus 3 percent month-on-month from MOP684 million), despite typical seasonality showing high-single digit declines month-on-month” for the May to June comparision.
According to investment analysts, the GGR performance in June was supported by a number of entertainment events held in Macau and by high hold in the premium-mass segment.
Citigroup said in a Tuesday memo that a series of concerts during the month of June by Hong Kong pop singer Jacky Cheung, held at Galaxy Arena, might have given a lift to the city’s industry as a whole. Galaxy Arena is part of the Galaxy Macau property run by Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.
“Two years ago, Jacky Cheung’s concert was a major reason why Macau’s GGR in June – which is usually the slowest month in the calendar – was par versus May, and it looks like he did it again this year,” said analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
They added: “This GGR print appears to echo with our positive findings in our recent table survey [in the Macau market], and is another testimony to players’ passion about gaming despite the geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.”
South Korean-pop superstar G-Dragon also held concerts on June 6, 7 and 8 at Galaxy Arena.
While “marquee” concerts helped “offset the weak seasonality” in June, JP Morgan said its “on-the-ground checks” last month also indicated that the “high-end [gaming] segments, direct VIP and ultra-premium mass performed particularly well”.
Easier comparisons
The June tally took the aggregate GGR so far this year to MOP118.77 billion, 4.4-percent higher than in the prior-year period.
June’s result meant that for the whole of the second quarter, casino GGR rose 8.3 percent year-on-year, to almost MOP61.12 billion.
The JP Morgan analysts said that “with each month from April through June beating its historical seasonality and consensus,” second-quarter 2025 “produced the highest GGR in over five years”.
“Both segments performed strongly and outpaced the seasonality, though we estimate VIP grew faster (plus 10 percent quarter-on-quarter or plus 12 percent year-on-year) than mass (plus 5 percent quarter-on-quarter or plus 8 percent year-on-year),” said Mr Kim and Ms Li. “
A Tuesday memo from Seaport Research Partners suggested that a “better than expected May–July [in terms of GGR] could be a strong indicator of a turnaround happening sooner than expected”.
Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said his institution’s “early estimate” for July GGR was “plus 10.2 percent year-on-year, minus 2.7 percent month-on-month.
“July this year has more concerts and events planned than last year,” observed Mr Umansky. But he added: “Our July estimate may be conservative, but could be negatively impacted if any typhoons in the area impact travel into Macau.”
Citigroup also noted that July this year would “enjoy a low GGR base” comparison, given that the tally in July 2024 had in likelihood been affected by the UEFA European Football Championship, which took place in June-July last year.
The Citigroup analysts stated: “Jacky Cheung will be having three more shows in early July, while Aaron Kwok (seven shows) and Sandy Lam (four shows) will also have their respective concert series in the same month.”
“We are conservatively anticipating July 2025 GGR to grow 5 percent year-on-year, with GGR expected to amount to MOP19.5 billion,” or about MOP629 million a day, they added.
Mr Umansky said Searport was raising its full-year 2025 GGR growth forecast to 5.6 percent, “with higher growth in the second half of the year (6.8 percent in the second half compared to 4.4 percent in the first half)”.
He added: “Growth should be driven by increased marketing efforts by operators and improving consumer trends in China.”
Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd said in a memo on Tuesday, after the announcement of Macau’s June GGR tally, that it expected “July GGR to be MOP20.4 billion (up 10-percent year-on-year) and full-year 2025 GGR to be MOP238 billion”, representing an increase of 5 percent in year-on-year terns.
“This recovery in second-quarter 2025 GGR is encouraging and could support EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation] margin,” wrote analyst Praveen Choudhary.
