Macau June’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is likely to grow 7 percent year-on-year to MOP30.3 billion (US$3.8 billion), Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said in a note to clients earlier this week. Casino revenue in June 2013 was MOP28.3 billion.
If that were to be the case, revenue growth would be the slowest in five months, following a 9.3 percent increase in May. It would also match January’s growth.
Macau’s casino GGR for May reached MOP32.35 billion, said the local regulator on Tuesday.
Based on BofAML’s 7-percent growth forecast for June, GGR for the second quarter of this year would reach MOP94 billion, up 8.9 percent year-on-year. For the first six months, Macau casinos would rake in MOP196 billion, up 14.6 percent from a year earlier.
The accumulated GGR total for the year to May 31 is MOP165.87 billion, a year-on-year growth of 15.8 percent, said the Macau gaming regulator.
Analysts say the slower than expected growth in revenue last month was VIP related.
The run rate for the last week of May was weaker than expected due to slower VIP volume, unfavourable win rate and more volatility as it was one day short of a full week, JP Morgan said.
Both JP Morgan and BofAML say the daily run rate in the last six days of May dropped to approximately MOP770 million.
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"There is still no clarity about when border easing for Macau will occur. In the end these changes are needed to see a rebound for Macau business"
Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Shirley Yang
Analysts at brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein