Analysts at Credit Suisse say mass-market gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau might grow by 34 percent this year and 27 percent in 2015. The bank believes Macau has bottomed in June and it is “time to accumulate” since investor expectation is low.
“We expect the Macau gaming sector to rerate from here into the next six months of 2014,” Credit Suisse analysts Kenneth Fong and Isis Wong wrote in a report.
Shares of Macau’s six casino operators rose in Hong Kong trading on Wednesday, as GGR is expected to rebound from its first drop in five years.
Macau’s casino GGR dropped 3.7 percent to MOP27.22 billion (US$3.41 billion) in June, the first decline since June 2009 when it fell 17.1 percent, according to official data.
Analysts have said growth in the VIP segment is lagging the mass market this year. “We believe that the VIP segment likely tracked down about 20 percent year-on-year in June,” Union Gaming Research Macau Ltd wrote in a note this week.
Macau’s VIP baccarat accounted for 63.7 percent of total GGR in the first quarter of 2014, down from 66 percent in 2013.
According to Credit Suisse, MGM China Holdings Ltd will be the least affected by a VIP gaming slowdown.
“In Macau, MGM is focused on driving mass visitors to its Macau asset and positioning for the same in Cotai, which we also believe helps to insulate the company from VIP related headline risk,” said the Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse also favours Las Vegas Sands Corp, the parent company of Macau-based Sands China Ltd.
“Las Vegas Sands remains the premier way to play not just the long-term growth of Macau (core assets + The Parisian) and Singapore (MBS) but broader Asia given our view that the company is well positioned should Japan legalise gaming,” it said.
