GGRAsia – Macau Nov daily GGR better than historical trends: analyst

Macau Nov daily GGR better than historical trends: analyst

Dec 02, 2024 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP18.44 billion (US$2.30 billion) in November was “slightly below initial estimates as a weak start to the month was offset by a strong second half,” suggested a Sunday note from Seaport Research Partners.

November’s GGR tally was up 14.9 percent from a year earlier, but down 11.3 percent sequentially, according to official data.

“Average daily GGR of MOP615 million … was at the lower end of monthly GGR this year, as is typical with November being a weak month generally in Macau,” wrote Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky in the memo.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc observed in its Sunday commentary that average GGR per day in November was down 8.3 percent relative to October.

“The 8.3 percent sequential decline per day was circa 280 basis points better than historical trends, as the average sequential contraction in November, relative to October, over the 2013 to 2019 period, was minus 11.2 percent,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli.

Mr Santarelli noted that Macau’s GGR result for November “was down 19.4 percent, relative to the GGR achieved in November of 2019”.

He added: “This compares to the October decline of 21.4 percent, relative to October of 2019.”

Deutsche Bank said its GGR forecast for the Macau market in December was just above US$2.39 billion, “up 3.0 percent year-on-year and down 16.3 percent when compared to December of 2019”.

“Our December forecast represents a monthly sequential per day improvement of 0.4 percent, which, we note, compares to the 0.7 percent average sequential per day improvement in December, relative to November, over the period from 2013 through 2019,” stated Mr Santarelli.

Seaport’s Mr Umansky is more bullish about this month’s tally, forecasting December GGR “to rise 5.2 percent year-on-year, [and] plus 5.9 percent month-on-month”.

Nonetheless, he expects December GGR tally to be “slightly weaker than normal due to the expected visit of General Secretary Xi [Jinping] for one day, which is expected to lead to a weaker than normal week during that visit”. President Xi is expected to visit Macau on December 20 for the 25th anniversary of Macau’s return to the motherland.

“Year-to-date through November, total GGR is running at 77.4 percent of the same period of 2019 (up from 76.9 percent at end of the third quarter,” said Mr Umansky.

According to the analyst, year-to-date mass revenue is “circa 112 percent of same period of 2019, with base mass recovery remaining subdued,” and premium mass revenue “strong at circa 48 percent above 2019 levels”.

“With junkets largely removed from Macau, year-to-date VIP is running at about 23.3 percent of same period of 2019,” added Mr Umansky.

He added: “Gaming spend per customer remains robust, even in light of what has been soft consumer confidence, weak retail sales and strong declines in luxury retail sales.”