Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for November is on track to expand by between 12 percent and 15 percent year-on-year, suggested a Monday note from brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.
“Macau’s GGR month-to-date (November 1 to 5) was approximately MOP3.7 billion [US$460.4 million], an average daily rate of approximately MOP740 million,” said analysts Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Cathy Huang. They cited as the basis of the information “channel checks”, understood to include industry unofficial data.
“Assuming an average daily rate of MOP690 million to MOP720 million for the remaining days of the month, we estimate November GGR to a range of MOP21 billion and MOP21.7 billion. This would represent a year-on-year increase in November of +12 percent to +15 percent,” added the Sanford Bernstein team.
But the November improvement could be at least 800 basis points above the bottom of that range, according to a Monday note from Japanese brokerage Nomura.
“Our estimate for November GGR of MOP22.5 billion to MOP23.5 billion implies year-on-year growth of circa 20 percent to 25 percent, or nearly 800 basis points higher than the latest Consensus Metrix estimate of 14.7 percent,” stated the institution, referring to a market estimates service provided by U.S.-based Kaul Advisory Group LLC; and citing Nomura’s own “channel checks”.
Macau GGR in November last year recorded the highest year-on-year growth rate for 2016, at 14.4 percent, according to previously-issued data from the local regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. That year, the move to positive monthly GGR gains only occurred in August, after 26 consecutive months of year-on-year GGR shrinkage that industry commentators said was linked to an anti-corruption campaign in China.
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“We see that basically the ‘golden’ periods [for Macau's casino industry] are all concentrated in the second half of this year”
Lei Wai Nong
Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance