GGRAsia – Macau VIP volume likely down 30pct early Nov: analysts

Macau VIP volume likely down 30pct early Nov: analysts

Nov 12, 2019 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Macau VIP gambling volume – a separate measure from gross gaming revenue (GGR) – fell by between 30 percent and 32 percent year-on-year in the first 10 days of November, separately estimated two brokerages.

In the third quarter, Macau VIP GGR had declined market wide by 22.5 percent year-on-year, showed data released on October 17 by the city’s government.

Several leaders of the local industry – Lawrence Ho Yau Lung, chairman and chief executive of Macau licensee Melco Resorts and Entertainment Ltd in commentary on his firm’s third-quarter earnings; and Alvin Chau Cheok Wa, boss of privately-held Macau junket brand Suncity Group speaking at an event on Friday – mentioned they saw signs of stabilisation of demand in the Macau casino market for the fourth quarter.

Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd said in a Monday note on the first 10 days of November, and citing industry estimates of the split between the mass market and the high-roller segment: “Mass remains robust and is estimated to have improved by low double digits of percent; however, VIP volume is likely to have declined by low 30s of percent on a year-on-year basis…”

The institution’s analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu estimated total Macau GGR for November 1 to 10 as about MOP7.5 billion (US$930,369), equal to an average daily rate of approximately MOP750 million. They noted the latter number was down 10 percent compared with November 2018’s average daily rate of MOP833 million.

“For November, we preliminarily estimate GGR will be -10 percent to -6 percent year-on-year (+2 percent to +6 percent month-on-month), with the latest Bloomberg consensus estimate at -5 percent,” wrote the Sanford Bernstein team in its memo.

The Nomura Instinet team said in its Monday note on the first 10 days of November in the Macau market: “VIP volumes are tracking approximately 30 to 32 percent lower versus the same period last year.”

Harry Curtis, Daniel Adam and Brian Dobson stated: “We estimate that average daily mass revenues were approximately 11 to 13 percent higher year-on-year.”

Nomura added it “still” expected November GGR to be “down approximately 8 to 10 percent year-on-year, at MOP22.5 billion to MOP23 billion”.