May 31, 2024 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck  
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Macau’s economy to continue to show “strong growth … in the near term,” following a 80.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023. The conclusion is part of IMF”s latest report on Macau.
Macau’s GDP is forecast to grow by 13.9 percent this year, “driven by further recovery in the gaming sector and pickup in private investment, partly due to commitments from gaming concessionaires to invest in non-gaming sectors,” added the report.
The United States-based organisation stated regarding Macau: “Headline inflation is projected to accelerate only gradually and stabilise around 2.5 percent over the medium-term.”
The report observed that in 2023, “declining rental prices helped keep inflation low [at] around 1 percent”.
The IMF paper followed talks that concluded on March 6, between the IMF and mainland and Macau officials. The IMF staff report was completed on April 24.
A Macau government statement issued last week said the city’s first-quarter GDP rose by 25.7 percent year-on-year in real terms, supported by exports of gaming services.
The IMF’s 59-page analysis nonetheless suggest that “the balance of risks to the outlook” for Macau “is tilted to the downside”.
Most of the risks mentioned – such as commodity-price volatility and climate risk – were not unique to the city.
One specific to Macau – “China slowdown” – referred to the possibility that the mainland, the key tourism feeder market for Macau, could experience a “sharper- or longer-than-expected contraction in the property sector,” as well as face the possibility of “local government financing stress, and decline in investment, or rising geopolitical tensions”.
This could slow economic activity in mainland China, with knock-on effects on the financial system and economy” in Macau, suggested the IMF.
But the body stated that Macau policy on broadening the city’s economic activity and its appeal to the rest of the world, should “mitigate” some of the mainland-related risk.
It said: ‘The economic diversification combined with the commitment of casino operators under the new licensing agreement to attract more international tourists is expected to mitigate the impact of the secular slowing of growth in mainland China.”
The Monetary Authority of Macau observed in a statement following publication of the dossier: “The IMF recognises the adequate diversification policy of the Macau … economy.”
Investment analysts covering the Macau casino sector have consistently suggested that mainland demand for Macau gaming is resilient to any general moderation of consumption across the country.
A recent survey of Macau players from brokerage CLSA Ltd suggested 70 percent of the 2024 ‘premium mass’ customer sample planned to visit Macau two or more times within the next 12 months. That was compared to 57 percent expressing similar intentions in the 2023 survey.
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32.5 million
Total number of visitor arrivals to Macau year-to-date