November still looks on track at least to equal an unwanted record so far in 2019 regarding monthly year-on-year decline in Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), say separately two brokerages.
Nomura Instinet stated in a Monday memo that – based on its estimate of MOP771 million (US$95.6 million) per day in GGR in the prior week, and with other factors considered – the Macau market was on track for MOP22.5 billion to MOP23 billion GGR in November, which would be a year-on-year decline of circa 9 percent.
The steepest yearly decline in a month previously this year was August’s which saw an 8.6-percent contraction.
Nomura said its downbeat estimate for November performance was led by an anticipated decline in VIP gambling volume.
By segment, for the prior week “we estimate that average daily mass revenues were approximately 5 percent to 7 percent higher year-on-year,” but with VIP play volumes “tracking approximately 30 percent to 32 percent lower versus the same period last year,” stated Nomura analysts Harry Curtis, Daniel Adam and Brian Dobson.
Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd outlined in a note the same day it expected November GGR to be -13 percent to -10 percent year-on-year.
For the prior week, “VIP volume is estimated to have declined by low 30s of percent” year-on-year, while mass GGR “grew at high single digits,” stated Sanford Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu.
Aside from a “softer China economy”, several other factors continued to create “headwinds“ to GGR said the institution, mentioning – as it had in prior weeks – “continued weakness” in China’s currency relative to other leading international currencies including the United States dollar; and some VIP players choosing to “delay” visits to Macau amid concerns on “funds movement”; and overall uncertainty about “U.S.-China trade tensions” and the “macro situation”.
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Analyst at Roth Capital Partners