Three stockbrokers have made widely varying forecasts of annual growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau casinos this month, ranging from 1.6 percent to 8 percent.
The brokers made their forecasts in the light of official data indicating that GGR grew to nearly MOP27.33 billion (US$3.42 billion) in October, 2.6 percent more than a year earlier.
A note issued yesterday by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc saod the figure last month was less than it forecast, mainly because business after the October Golden Week of holidays in China was weaker than expected.
“We believe the results are indicative of continued slowing in the VIP segment, as we believe mass comparisons remained up double-digits in October,” the Deutsche Bank team said.
The stockbroker forecasts GGR of about US$2.93 billion this month, 1.6 percent more than a year ago.
A note put out by Union Gaming Securities Asia Ltd on Thursday said of the revenue figure last month: “GGR was negatively impacted during the period surrounding President Xi Jinping’s trip to the region to attend the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge last week. Any time a high-ranking official visits the region it has an impact on Macau.”
Union Gaming forecasts that GGR this month will be MOP25 billion, 8 percent more than a year ago.
Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd noted in a memo issued also on Thursday that total visitor arrivals to Macau were up 7.2 percent year-on-year and visitor arrivals from mainland China were up 14 percent during the October holiday period.
“Other than visitation growth, better-quality players helped drive VIP and mass GGR growth,” the note suggested. “However, GGR growth softened for the remainder of the month.”
Sanford C. Bernstein forecasts that GGR will be between 2 percent and 4 percent greater this month than a year ago.
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”China has been strengthening the control over capital flow, and the impact of that has already been reflected [on Macau’s gaming revenue trend]. There should not be any bigger impact from the new… legislation [on the mainland] … on the gaming revenue trend here”
Wilfred Wong Ying Wai
President of Macau casino operator Sands China