Business confidence in the Philippines fell sharply in March, as companies cited the impact of higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict, according to the nation’s central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
The central bank’s monthly Business Expectations Survey showed the confidence index dropped to minus 24.3 percent in March, from a positive 8.2 percent in February. A negative reading indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. It was the weakest reading in more than 25 years, according to official data.
The BSP said firms expected fuel-driven price pressures to curb consumer spending and lift the cost of basic goods and services. The survey covered 515 firms and was conducted from March 5 to 31.
The Philippines is one of the few countries in Asia to have not only a licensed casino industry open to locals but also a licensed online gaming sector.
Negative sentiment usually signals weaker expectation regarding disposable income and more cautious spending. For the gaming industry, it might translate into lower gross gaming revenue (GGR), according to observers.
The Philippine gaming sector – including non-casino operations – produced GGR of PHP396.14 billion (US$6.61 billion) in full-year 2025, a 6.4-percent increase from the previous year.
The central bank’s March survey also showed that sentiment for the next quarter turned negative, with the “three-month-ahead” index falling to minus 17.3 percent from positive 37.4 percent. The “year-ahead” index declined to 11.7 percent from 51.1 percent.
Businesses also reported a tighter financial position and weaker credit access. The financial condition index fell to minus 24.9 percent, while the credit access index slipped to minus 7.1 percent.
The BSP said companies cited domestic competition, insufficient demand, high interest rates and rising oil costs as key constraints. Firms also expected the country’s currency, the Philippine peso, to weaken and borrowing rates to rise over the coming months.
It’s also expected that the central bank will raise interest rates by up to 50 basis points in 2026 as the Iran-driven oil price shock pushes inflation to above-target levels, noted Maybank Securities Inc. The institution cited several analysts forecasting one to two additional hikes this year, following a recent increase to 4.5 percent.
