SJM Holdings Ltd is likely to close out 2014 as Macau’s December market leader by gross gaming revenue share, said a note issued on Monday by Wells Fargo Securities LLC. The note cited unofficial industry returns through to December 28.
It estimated SJM Holdings – which has no Cotai presence so far but instead has its flagship property Grand Lisboa (pictured) in the downtown area of Macau – had 24.1 percent of the market as of December 28 (compared to 23.2 percent for the whole of November).
In second spot for December so far, said Wells Fargo, is Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd with 21.6 percent (21.8 percent in November); third is Sands China Ltd on 19.4 percent (previously 22.1 percent); fourth is Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd on 14.6 percent (from 13.2 percent); fifth is MGM China Holdings Ltd with 10.2 percent (from 10.9 percent); and in sixth spot is Wynn Macau Ltd with 10.1 percent (from 8.8 percent), estimates Wells Fargo.
Additionally, the institution said it now forecasts the December contraction for Macau GGR at 31 percent year-on-year – between two and four percentage points worse than it had estimated in a note issued on December 26.
“This assumes ADR [average daily revenue] of MOP700 million for the remaining three days of the month, none of which are weekend days,” said Monday’s note from analyst Cameron McKnight.
Investors had already widely predicted Macau’s casino sector would end December in negative territory in GGR growth terms. That was due to factors including mainland China’s anti-corruption drive and the perceived negative effect – on gamblers’ travel plans and wagering appetites – of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s official visit to the territory on December 19 and 20.
The anti-graft initiative appears to have contributed to Macau’s flat GGR performance on average in the 11 months to November 30. That follows five years of double digit and sometimes high double digit percentage GGR growth annually between 2009 and 2013.
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”We expect Goa to quickly become a US$1 billion market as it transitions to land-based casinos (from US$150 million today), which is still just a fraction of India’s total GGR potential of US$10 billion to US$17 billion”
Analyst at Union Gaming Securities Asia