Brokerage Texas Capital Securities says it “still anticipates” that Wynn Al Marjan Island (pictured in a file photo), a new US$5.1-billion casino resort in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will open within 2027, despite “geopolitical events” that have delayed the stock momentum of the property’s 40-percent equity owner and operator, Wynn Resorts Ltd.
Wynn Resorts, parent of Macau operator Wynn Macau Ltd, had previously flagged an opening in spring 2027.
Texas Capital Securities’ analyst David Bain wrote in a Monday note: “We believe geopolitical events have likely delayed stock momentum over the last few months which would have been driven by Wynn’s UAE integrated resort casino opening originally slated for first quarter 2027.
“However, events do not impact long-term UAE financial forecasts, in our view, and we still anticipate a 2027 opening.”
Mr Bain also noted: “Versus any financial forecast or valuation degradation of the project due to geopolitical events, we believe there is potential for greater earnings and valuation from them, over the long term.”
Nonetheless, the brokerage said it was lowering its second-quarter estimates for Wynn Resorts’ Las Vegas, Nevada, operations to below consensus, citing industry checks “suggesting a relatively soft June and underappreciated difficult [year-on-year] comparisons”. It said Wynn Resorts had become a “victim of its own success” because of its strong prior performance.
Mr Bain said however that the institution believes that Wynn Las Vegas “key performance indicator outperformance continues,” with the property being a “market share outperformer” in that market.
Wynn Resorts had said on its first quarter earnings call in May that it expected a “modest delay” in the opening timetable for the UAE property.
The comment came in response to analysts’ questions regarding the conflict between the United States and Iran. Ras Al Khaimah, the emirate where Wynn Al Marjan Island is located, sits on the southern shore of the Gulf, opposite Iran, to the north.
View on MGM Resorts
In Texas Capital Securities’ Monday note, Mr Bain also gave commentary on the merger and acquisition topic relating to MGM Resorts International, another U.S.-based casino operator with interests in Macau via MGM China Holdings Ltd.
MGM Resorts is also developing, with local partners, Japan’s first integrated resort (IR) with casino, the JPY1.51-trillion (US$9.30-billion currently) MGM Osaka, due to open in 2030.
The brokerage said, referring to June’s US$48.30-per-share cash offer from People Inc, led by U.S. billionaire businessman Barry Diller, to take over MGM Resorts: “MGM trades approximately 3 percent below People Inc’s… offer… signalling investors believe a deal can be made at a higher price, in our view.”
Referring to an unrelated takeover offer for Caesars Entertainment Inc, another U.S.-based casino operator, Mr Bain wrote: “Using Caesars Entertainment’s implied acquisition valuation (which we view as conservative), MGM would trade for US$54 per share.”
He added: “Further, MGM Japan, of which attribution is not included in our Caesars Entertainment comparison, could generate approximately US$800 million of MGM-owned EBITDAM [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, amortisation, and management fees].”
“We believe second-quarter 2026 consensus estimates are rational, and MGM will show EBITDA growth in Las Vegas, the first time since third-quarter 2024,” added the brokerage.
In May, Caesars Entertainment announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by leisure conglomerate Fertitta Entertainment Inc in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately US$17.6 billion, including the assumption of approximately US$11.9 billion of Caesars’ outstanding debt.
Fertitta Entertainment is controlled by Tilman Fertitta, who is also Wynn Resorts’ largest individual shareholder.
