Banking group Jefferies expects Macau casino industry first-quarter margin on adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to have been “challenging and similar to fourth quarter 2025”.
While first-quarter gross gaming revenue (GGR) was up 14.3 percent, per government data, the “driver came from VIP, and thus promotions and competition remain,” wrote analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei in a Tuesday note.
First-quarter earnings season for Macau’s six gaming concessionaires begins later this month.
Jefferies noted that market wide for the rest of the year, “the geopolitical issue is weighing on sentiment”.
It added: “We estimate 6.8 percent GGR growth for 2026 versus market’s 6 percent.”
The institution expects Sands China Ltd will report the highest first-quarter EBITDA margin, at 30 percent, with SJM Holdings Ltd at the bottom of the pack, on 15 percent.
Jefferies said regarding Sands China: “The company remains focused on delivering absolute EBITDA dollars rather than margin optimisation. “
The institution further noted: “While the pace of recovery may vary from quarter to quarter, management [at Sands China] continues to target an adjusted EBITDA run rate of US$2.7 billion.”
The bank said that included approximately US$1 billion of adjusted EBITDA respectively from the casino group’s Cotai properties The Londoner Macao and The Venetian Macao; US$300 million each from The Parisian Macao and The Plaza at Four Seasons Macao, and US$100 million from its downtown casino-hotel Sands Macao.
“The emphasis is firmly on achieving these absolute EBITDA targets rather than margin improvement,” stated Jefferies, citing commentary by Sands China management.
The banking group said that although SJM Holdings’ first-quarter EBITDA margin would in likelihood trail that of the other five Macau operators, it would probably report a first-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 15 percent, a year-on-year gain of 2 percentage points, and up 5 percentage points on the fourth quarter last year.
SJM Holdings’ adjusted EBITDA margin outlook would “benefit from satellite casino closure,” suggested Jefferies.
The firm had greatest exposure to the legacy system whereby the economic value of some Macau casino venues was shared with third-party investors piggy-backing on local casino concessionaires’ gaming rights. That system was wound up by the end of the fourth quarter last year.
In terms of Macau operators’ first-quarter GGR market share, Jefferies expects the gainers to be Sands China on 25.9 percent, up 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; with Wynn Macau Ltd on 12.6 percent, up 0.4 percentage points sequentially.
Share donators would be: Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd on 20.3 percent, down 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; MGM China Holdings Ltd on 16.2 percent, down 0.4 percentage points; and SJM Holdings on 9.9 percent, down 0.6 percentage points.
“Sands China likely benefitted from Chinese New Year, while Galaxy Entertainment normalises from its historical high market share in fourth-quarter 2025,” wrote Jefferies.
The institution didn’t give commentary on Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd’s likely first-quarter GGR market share. Based on the data for the other operators, Melco Resorts’ first-quarter market share would in likelihood be 15.1 percent, up 1.0 percentage points sequentially.
