Citigroup has raised its estimate for Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in May to MOP20.50 billion (US$2.55 billion), from a previous forecast of MOP20.0 billion, given what it said was higher month-on-month mass and VIP gaming volumes, according to a Monday memo.
If GGR reached MOP20.5 billion in May, that would represent circa 79 percent of the same month in 2019, the immediate trading year before the onset of Covid-19, wrote analyst George Choi.
Macau’s market-wide GGR reached approximately MOP13.4 billion (US$1.7 billion) in the first 19 days of May, said Citigroup, citing industry sources.
“The implied daily-run rate of last week was approximately MOP686 million, about 19 percent higher versus prior week at approximately MOP579 million a day. We believe the improved daily-run rate was mainly visitation driven,” said Mr Choi.
He added: “Concerts by [Hong Kong] Cantopop group Mirror (which took place at Galaxy Arena from May 16 to May 19) and the recent introduction of Small 6/Big 6 side bets by Sands [China Ltd] and Galaxy [Entertainment Group Ltd] probably helped too.”
Last week, Hong Kong and Macau marked the Buddha’s Birthday, May 15, a public holiday. The date was not a holiday on Chinese mainland, the most important feeder market for Macau’s gaming and tourism trade.
The ‘Small 6/Big 6’ baccarat side bet – a variant of the prevalent ‘Lucky Six’ found in Macau casinos – had already been seen in the Macau market since the Labour Day holiday in early May, across the major casino properties run by Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, according to GGRAsia’s site checks at the time.
In its Monday memo, Citigroup said it expected daily casino GGR of MOP592 million for the rest of this month in Macau.
The institution’s latest estimate also reflected the fact that Macau’s VIP gaming volumes were about “15 to 18 percent” higher month-on-month, and that of mass gaming segment was “13 to 15 percent” higher sequentially, according to Monday’s note. “VIP hold rate appears to be slightly higher than normal,” Citigroup added.
