Brokerage JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd says it expects Macau’s March casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to be “flattish” judged year-on-year, at around MOP19 billion (US$2.37 billion). That was based on it estimating that GGR for the first 16 days of this month had been circa MOP10.1 billion, or the equivalent of MOP631 million per day.
“This implies last week’s run rate remained largely stable at MOP621 million per day,” in line with estimates, wrote the JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Mufan Shi in a Monday note.
The institution added the data estimates implied “mass GGR is running at 110 percent-plus of pre-Covid levels, and VIP [GGR] at low-20s of percent, which appear pretty stable versus fourth quarter 2024.”
“We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year,” at 5 to 6 percent year-on-year, on “easier” comparisons in terms of the calendar, and versus anticipated zero GGR growth in the first six months of the year. That would mean overall “a modest 3 percent growth for full-year 2025,” added the JP Morgan analysts.
There had been “seemingly stable – and somewhat better-than-feared – demand momentum year-to-date, and there were likely to be “improving year-on-year momentum from June onward on easier comps”, the brokerage said.
Last week Sam Hou Fai, Macau’s Chief Executive, had reiterated local-government caution about the city’s public fiscal outlook for the year, though he didn’t mention gaming specifically.
The city levies 40 percent tax on Macau GGR. Last year such tax brought in nearly MOP88.13 billion revenue for the public finances.
