Macau’s casino industry is likely to benefit from China’s latest economic stimulus package, says brokerage Seaport Research Partners, which predicts a boost to consumer confidence and spending power.
The stimulus measures, announced on Sunday by the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council, aim to revitalise domestic demand and ease financial burdens on consumers, according to an offical statement. Seaport said the policies should help sustain revenue growth in Macau’s gaming sector.
“The Chinese government has recently announced ambitious plans to boost consumption and improve consumer confidence,” noted senior analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Wednesday memo. “Such policy initiatives should provide a positive tailwind for Macau’s revenues.”
China’s stimulus package comprises eight key sections, including policies to promote “reasonable wage growth by strengthening employment support” and to improve mechanisms for minimum wage adjustments. Other measures include expanding income sources by stabilising the stock market and developing more bond products tailored for individual investors, according to state-run news agency Xinhua.
The plan also highlights traditional consumption sectors – such as housing and automobiles – alongside emerging industries, including artificial intelligence-powered products and tourism by elderly people.
Although specific funding details have yet to be disclosed, Mr Umansky stressed the significance of the package. “The importance of shifting economic focus and prioritisation of the consumer economy is of critical importance for China’s future economy and consumer spending power,” he said.
He added: “While there is no helicopter money – i.e., cash handouts to individuals – coming, [the] policies to improve consumer demand were expected following… the government’s concern around weak consumption.”
Seaport noted that this package follows an initial round of stimulus measures introduced in September last year and ongoing support for China’s property market.
“We expect that over the medium term, these measures will help support Macau demand growth,” said Mr Umansky. “Improvement in consumer confidence and expansion of consumer wallets should provide long-term support to the growth of Macau’s base mass customer base.”
While the premium gaming segment has shown resilience in the post-pandemic recovery, Seaport’s research suggested that the base mass market – comprising lower-spending players – remains weaker than anticipated. The firm estimated that this segment is still around 15 percent below 2019 levels.
“Overnight base mass is likely even weaker as day-tripper business from Guangdong and Hong Kong has been stronger than destination – i.e., overnight stay – base mass,” the memo stated.
Despite the immediate challenges, Mr Umansky suggested China’s latest stimulus initiatives should support Macau’s casino sector growth beyond 2025. He also noted that Beijing appears to be maintaining a positive policy stance towards Macau, including the expansion of various visa policies to facilitate travel from mainland China.
The analyst further noted: “While the immediate impact has been lagging, the looser visa policies and potential for further accommodations on visas and travel into.. Hong Kong and Macau… should be helpfulfor Macau growth in the future.”
