Brokerage Seaport Research Partners has reduced by more than half its growth forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) this year. It now expects 3 percent expansion, from a previous estimate of 6.5 percent.
“We reduce our estimates for Macau GGR to grow only 3 percent in 2025 following a weaker than expected start to the year,” wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Tuesday memo. “We keep our 2026 and 2027 growth at 7 percent,” with “GGR recovering to 92 percent of 2019 by 2027,” he added.
“We are forecasting a strengthening to the market in late summer and into the back half of this year and do not expect the trade war to have a significant negative impact on Macau, at this time,” said the analyst.
Mr Umansky said long-term expansion for Macau gaming was “still structural… driven by a combination of increasing visitation and spend, including the benefits accruing from implementation of smart digital tables and increasing spend in baccarat side bets”.
According to Seaport, the “benefits derived from efficiencies” from ‘smart’ digital tables “could be stronger than we expect, and could lead to upward revision on our forecasts”.
The institution also observed that baccarat side-betting was increasing in the Macau market.
“The casino advantage in side bets is materially higher than traditional baccarat play, and while increasing side bets may reduce overall game time – as players lose money faster –, the overall GGR per player would increase,” stated Mr Umansky.
Seaport cautioned that “material weakening” for China’s currency “and/or a weakening China economy in 2025 would negatively impact” its forecast.
The institution said first-quarter results “will be disappointing as Macau growth stagnated, but individual company results should be largely as expected”.
“Investors are likely to be more focused on the coming quarter and rest of the year, especially with heightened concern around any potential slowdown in Asia due to the Trump [administration] tariff regime and a potential U.S. recession,” said Mr Umansky.
First-quarter Macau GGR was nearly MOP57.66 billion (US$7.21 billion), up 0.6 percent on the same period in 2024.
According to Seaport, Macau industry property earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in the three months to March 31 is expected to decline – in U.S. dollar terms – 0.6 percent sequentially, and 6.5 percent from a year earlier.
That is because “higher costs and softer non-gaming negatively impacted operating leverage, with EBITDA margin estimated to fall to 27 percent in the first quarter, compared to … 29.1 percent in first-quarter 2024,” added Mr Umansky.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund reduced Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.6 percent this year, from a previous estimate of 7.3 percent.
Macau’s leader, Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai, stated in the government’s Policy Address for Fiscal Year 2025, outlined in mid-April, that the public budget might need to be revised for a number of reasons, including the GGR outlook for the year, and some spending commitments still to be factored.
