Brokerage CLSA Ltd says the opening of “certain new premium properties” mostly at resorts in Macau’s Cotai casino district are likely to help support 7.6 percent year-on-year growth in casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025, to HKD234.8 billion (circa US$30 billion).
In a May report, CLSA had expected only a 1.8 percent rise in Macau GGR for 2025, meaning its latest revision is a 5.8 percentage point improvement.
CLSA mentioned its revised 2025 forecast in a Thursday report, which came a few days after Macau reported a 19.0 percent year-on-year increase in GGR for June.
CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang told GGRAsia in an email reply: “What we are looking for the rest of the year is a flattish GGR per day from second-quarter 2025 (MOP672 million) [US$83.1 million],” which would mean “a 7.6 percent year-on-year growth in 2025’s annual GGR”.
CLSA also observed that the renminbi strengthened against the U.S. dollar “by 1.4 percent from the beginning to the end of second-quarter 2025”.
Most bets in Macau casinos are denominated in Hong Kong dollars, a currency pegged against the U.S.’s currency. Most of the tourists to Macau are from mainland China, with assets commonly denominated in renminbi.
The CLSA analyst told GGRAsia that while the recent appreciation of China’s currency against the U.S. dollar was likely to “the biggest factor” in improving Macau’s GGR performance, “the opening of certain new premium properties on Cotai also underpins the strength”.
The brokerage outlined some new hotel product in the Macau gaming market, and its possible positive impact on GGR.
Mentioned were: “Sands China’s Londoner Macao Phase 2, Capella at Galaxy Macau (with 95 penthouses and suites) and 10 new suites at MGM Macau opened in late April/early May.”
The Capella at Galaxy Macau hotel had a soft launch in early May, according to a statement at the time by the complex’s promoter, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. It features a gaming floor with about 30 gaming tables, according to investment analysts.
The full room inventory of The Londoner Macao complex was made available by early May, in time for the five-day mainland China holiday period surrounding Labour Day – also known as ‘May Golden Week’.
CLSA’s Mr Kiang told GGRAsia that market-wide: “We would like to highlight that the premium mass [gambling] segment has been pretty solid and steady for the past 12 months. With new ultra-premium offerings, that would give an additional boost to it.”
He added that had been “evident from June’s first one to two weeks’ GGR… before Jacky Cheung’s concert [series] began on 20 June”.
The popular Hong Kong singer had nine shows scheduled from mid-June to early July at Galaxy Arena at Galaxy Macau. Some investment analysts have suggested the concerts had helped give a lift to market wide June GGR.
CLSA’s Mr Kiang said that in terms of industry-wide margin on earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) there was “minimal scope for margin expansion”.
The institution thought EBITDA margin would “remain flat at 27.2 percent in second-quarter 2025 – same as first-quarter 2025 – and slightly dip to 26.9 percent in third-quarter 2025”.
He added: “Depending on level of reinvestments or operating expense spent, the margin could expand with a faster growth in Macau’s overall GGR on operating leverage.”
Judged year-on-year, CLSA expects second-quarter EBITDA for Macau’s casino industry to increase by 6.9 percent, to circa HKD16 billion.
