Seaport Research Partners expects full-year Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow by 8.6 percent year-on-year, in U.S. dollar terms, despite some slight sequential slowing anticipated for the fourth quarter, the institution said in a Sunday memo.
Macau’s 2024 GGR was just over MOP226.78 billion (US$28.34 billion, currently), according to data from the local regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky stated: “While 2025 had started softly in Macau, our expectation for a summer pickup and strength in the second half has been bearing fruit.”
He added that “recent softness in September – due to typhoon related disruption – and a softer start in October – due to several one-off factors – does not change our growth thesis for the rest of 2025 and long-term”.
“We continue to see Macau as a secular long-term growth market… We forecast Macau GGR to grow 8.6 percent – in U.S. dollar terms, 8.3 percent in Macau patacas – in 2025 with third-quarter growth of 13 percent and fourth quarter at 12 percent, and 7 percent annual growth in 2026 and 2027,“ wrote Mr Umansky.
The analyst added, referring to compound annual growth rate (CAGR) on industry earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA): “This top-line growth profile should lead to EBITDA CAGR of 9 percent plus.”
“Longer term, market share shifts would benefit Sands [China Ltd] and Galaxy [Entertainment Group Ltd], while smaller operators should see share loss: this could be more impacted if base mass recovery is stronger than we currently forecast, which would also see higher overall growth,” noted Mr Umansky.
He said that for the results for the three months to September 30, it was likely there was a “quarter-on-quarter increase in player reinvestment in mass, which should suppress margins”.
