Investment bank UBS maintains a “constructive” view on Macau’s gaming industry heading into 2026, with “momentum likely to stay resilient” in terms of growth in revenue and earnings.
“The outlook is supported by enhanced tourism offerings, expanded marketing initiatives, and a more diversified customer base, which should continue to drive growth, particularly within premium segments,” stated the institution in a recent memo.
The bank expects Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) and its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to grow 6 percent and 7 percent in 2026, respectively.
“We expect growth to be weighted towards first-half 2026 at circa 7 percent year-on-year, driven by favourable base effects, and moderate to circa 4-percent year-on-year growth from second-half 2026 onwards,” said UBS.
The institution said however it had lowered its EBITDA forecast for Macau’s gaming industry this year and in 2026, “to factor in higher operational spending in the second half of 2025”.
“Margins should remain broadly stable in 2026, supported by demand diversion from satellite casinos and a steady competition environment,” stated the institution.
UBS expects premium operators in Macau to “continue to benefit” in what it says is a “premiumised demand environment,” being able to “capture GGR share sustainably”.
According to the note, the competition environment among Macau operators “appears to be stable this year, despite a recent uptick in promotional intensity from Sands [China Ltd]”.
The bank added: “These efforts appear to have translated to a larger impact at the base mass segment, while reinvestment rates for premium properties have remained broadly flattish.”
With reinvestment trends “normalising”, UBS said it expects operators with strong premium product and service positioning to “outperform”.
“This should be reinforced by the ongoing property upgrades,” added the institution, including the launch of suites from MGM China Holdings Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd “in early 2026”, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd’s Countdown Hotel “by mid-2026”.
