Fitch Ratings Inc forecasts Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 4.0 percent in 2026, supported by “recovery in tourism flows. The forecast is based on the assumption that the city’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) next year “will recover to roughly 88 percent of its 2019 level,” stated the rating agency.
Nonetheless, that will be a slowdown from an estimated 4.6-percent GDP growth this year, and from an 8.8-percent increase in 2024, noted the institution.
The commentary was part of a Tuesday report in which the institution affirmed Macau’s long-term issuer default rating at ‘AA’, with a ‘stable’ outlook.
Macau’s GDP in the first nine months of 2025 expanded by 4.2 percent year-on-year in real terms, showed data from the city’s Statistics and Census Services. The overall economic output “corresponded to 88.4 percent of the … same period of 2019,” stated the bureau.
Macau casino GGR for the first 11 months of this year reached MOP226.52 billion (US$28.26 billion), an 8.6-percent increase from the prior-year period, showed government data.
The Macau government has forecast the city’s casino GGR will reach MOP236 billion for full-year 2026, according to its fiscal budget plan for next year, announced last month.
In Tuesday’s memo, Fitch said it expected “continued gaming tourism to drive [Macau’s] economic growth, albeit at a slower pace”.
That was because “weaker … economic conditions” in Chinese mainland “will weigh increasingly on outbound Chinese tourists’ sentiment,” the institution suggested.
That would be “offset partly by favourable visa policies, ongoing non-gaming investments, and improvements in tourism infrastructure,” it added.
Fitch stated: “We expect Macau will continue to build up substantial fiscal buffers in 2026, supported by solid gaming revenue collections.”
