Macau’s February casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) could rise 22 percent year-on-year, from February 2025’s MOP19.74 billion (US$2.45 billion currently), suggests a Sunday note from banking group Morgan Stanley.
“We expect first-quarter GGR to rise 18 percent year-on-year, on a lower base for the first four months of 2025,” added the institution.
The memo followed January’s GGR performance this time, announced on Sunday, which saw a 24.0 percent gain from a year earlier, at MOP22.63 billion.
That was “a beat” versus a Bloomberg survey of market forecasts, which had a median rise of 18.5 percent for January, and a investment-community range of 15 percent to 19 percent year-on-year GGR gain, noted the institution.
Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Anson Lee and Stephen Grambling, said first-quarter 2026 GGR would be supported by in likelihood a strong February.
That month “should see an additional uplift as all … days of the Chinese New Year [CNY] holidays fall in the month,” the analysts stated.
Steven Pizzella of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc, said in a note after January’s GGR numbers: “Our February [GGR] forecast of approximately US$2.788 billon is up 12.8 percent year-on-year versus Consensus Metrix’s… plus 11.5 percent year-on-year.”
The lunar-calendar year festival itself falls on February 17 this time. China’s State Council has decreed a nine-day break on the mainland to celebrate, running from February 15 to 23 inclusive. Last time, the holiday was from January 28 to February 4.
The Chinese New Year period is typically one of the peak seasons for Macau’s gaming and hospitality trade.
Morgan Stanley added in its Sunday memo: “Although the market appears concerned about weaker margins and promotions in fourth-quarter 2025, a stronger first-quarter 2026 should drive a positive earnings revision.”
The institution also noted, referring to the sector’s overall value relative to its operational cash earnings: “We view industry enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation at 8.1 times (versus past 15-year average of 12.8 times) as still compelling.”
